Posted Line Trajectory: Trending Up (+1.0 over 6 games)Free Dossier Release

Ausar Thompson Rebounds Prop (Los Angeles Lakers @ Detroit Pistons, ): Fair Line 8.3 (-273) vs 6.5 Market

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)

Fanatics: Over 6.5 (-125)Modeled Edge: +29.5% EV · Fair Value 8.3 (-273)
Pick & Release Line
OVER 6.5 (-121)
ProphetX
Modeled Fair Line
8.3
1.8 Pt Delta
Modeled Fair Price
-273
+29.5% EV
Posted Line Drift
5.5 → 6.5 (+1.0)
Last 6 Active Games
Matchup (CT)
LAL @ DET
NBA Props Lane CLV
75 / 11 / 39
Beat / Tied / Lost

Sportsbook Posted Rebounds Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)

Pre-game sportsbook posted rebounds total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.

Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (8.3 / -273)
Across the last 6 active games (Oct 27 to Nov 8), sportsbooks adjusted Ausar Thompson's posted rebounds line upward in 1 of 5 game-over-game steps from 5.5 to 6.5 (+1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for LAL @ DET is 8.3 (-273).9.58.57.56.55.54.5WB FAIR LINE: 8.35.55.56.56.56.56.5Oct 27DET @ NYKOct 28CHA @ DETOct 30DET @ BKNNov 2DET @ CHANov 4PHI @ DETNov 8LAL @ DET

Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 27 to Nov 8), sportsbooks adjusted Ausar Thompson's posted rebounds line upward in 1 of 5 game-over-game steps from 5.5 to 6.5 (+1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for LAL @ DET is 8.3 (-273).

6-Game Posted Rebounds Ledger (Ausar Thompson)

America/Chicago (CT)
Date (CT)MatchupPosted LineMoveActualResult
DET @ NYK5.5 (-128)—6Over
CHA @ DET5.5 (-122)0.09Over
DET @ BKN6.5 (+100)+1.08Over
DET @ CHA6.5 (-110)0.06Under
PHI @ DET6.5 (+106)0.017Over
LAL @ DET6.5 (-121)0.0—Fair 8.3

Canonical pre-game posted line across 6 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.

Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Fanatics: Over 6.5 (-125)DraftKings: Over 6.5 (-130)FanDuel: Over 6.5 (-132)BetMGM: Over 6.5 (-121)Caesars: Over 6.5 (-132)ProphetX: Over 6.5 (-121)Trade on Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Lagging Production6-Game Window

Ausar Thompson Rebounds Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)

Actual output +3.7 vs. +1.0 book step adjustment (+2.7 Unpriced Book Lag).

Unpriced Book Step-Lag+2.7Max Single-Game Book Step: +1.0
Window Open Line
5.5
Current Posted Line
6.5
Book Cumulative Step
+1.0
Actual Window Avg
9.2
Actual Output Delta
+3.7
Modeled Fair Value
8.3 (-273)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
Ausar Thompson Sticky Book Anchoring Meter: 6-game Posted Rebounds Line vs Actual Box-Score Output2036Oct 27@ NYK9Oct 28vs CHA8Oct 30@ BKN6Nov 2@ CHA17Nov 4vs PHINov 8vs LAL
Game (CT)Posted LineBook StepActualBox Surplus
Oct 27 · @ NYK5.5—6+0.5
Oct 28 · vs CHA5.50.09+3.5
Oct 30 · @ BKN6.5+1.08+1.5
Nov 2 · @ CHA6.50.06-0.5
Nov 4 · vs PHI6.50.017+10.5
Nov 8 · vs LAL6.50.0——

WagerBird Write-Up · Ausar Thompson Rebounds (Over 6.5)

Free Dossier Release
Write-Up Thesis

Thompson's rebounding activity and the missing starting center support enough opportunities to collect seven boards.

01 · Fundamental Driver

Active on the glass

8.6 REB · 27.6 MIN — Thompson has collected rebounds at a strong rate without needing a full starter's workload. His ability to pursue misses outside the center's immediate area gives Detroit another way to complete defensive possessions.

02 · Fundamental Driver

Interior opportunity

30 PROJECTED MIN · 8.3 PROJECTED REB — Duren's absence leaves more interior responsibility for Detroit's remaining rotation. Thompson can absorb part of that work through pursuit and positioning without needing extra shots or designed offensive touches.

Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors

Thesis Invalidation Risks

A demanding perimeter assignment can pull Thompson away from available misses while Reed and Collins collect them. Personal fouls or a reduced closing stint would also cut into the opportunities created by his activity.

Settlement Rule: CASHES WITH AUSAR THOMPSON RECORDING SEVEN OR MORE REBOUNDS; NO PUSH AT 6.5.

WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift · Team Tide ShiftLAL @ DET · Points

LAL @ DET · Detroit Pistons WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) ()

Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Detroit Pistons's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.

DET Rotation Mode: Team Tide ShiftTeam Tide Shift: 2 of 6 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted UpTeam Tide Shift (Bullish): Market Expanding Core-6 Scoring Ceiling

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

-20.2 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 92.3 vs. 112.5 Posted Team Total)

7 Licensed Books Quoting Team Total
Detroit Pistons Core-6 Prop Sum 85.0 vs Implied Team Total 92.3 vs Posted Team Total 112.5Core-6 Prop Sum85.0Implied Team Total92.3Posted Team Total112.5
Core-6 SumCore-6 ShareImplied TotalPosted TotalReconciliation Gap
85.092.1%92.3112.5 (-115)-20.2
Compare DET Team Total Partner Quotes:
FanDuel 113.5 (O -104)DraftKings 112.5 (O -115)BetMGM 112.5 (O -120)Caesars 112.5 (O -120)Kalshi (Code WBIRD1)
Core-6 PlayerTonight LineTeam Scoring Share %Tonight's Implied Prop Share %6-Game Line Drift6G TrendOutcome Tag
#1
Cade Cunningham
DET · Prev 24.5 (0.0)
24.528.1%21.8%(-6.3% vs Hist)+1.0Cade Cunningham 6-game posted line trend from 23.5 to 24.5Steady Share
#2
Duncan Robinson
DET · Prev 14.5 (+1.0)
15.520.8%13.8%(-7.0% vs Hist)+4.0Duncan Robinson 6-game posted line trend from 11.5 to 15.5Team Tide Shift
#3
Paul Reed
DET · Prev 12.5 (+1.0)
13.514.0%12.0%(-2.0% vs Hist)+1.0Paul Reed 6-game posted line trend from 12.5 to 13.5Team Tide Shift
#4
John Collins
DET · Prev 11.5 (0.0)
11.58.4%10.2%(+1.8% vs Hist)-4.0John Collins 6-game posted line trend from 15.5 to 11.5Steady Share
#5
Ausar Thompson
DET · Prev 10.5 (0.0)
10.510.6%9.3%(-1.3% vs Hist)+1.0Ausar Thompson 6-game posted line trend from 9.5 to 10.5Steady Share
#6
Daniss Jenkins
DET · Prev 9.5 (0.0)
9.510.2%8.4%(-1.8% vs Hist)+1.0Daniss Jenkins 6-game posted line trend from 8.5 to 9.5Steady Share
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team pages.
View LAL @ DET Game Markets →Detroit Pistons team page →
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up

Ausar Thompson Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)

1 active Ausar Thompson prop write-up tracked awaiting closing line settlement.

Ausar Thompson CLV Counts
0 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost
0 Settled CLV Receipts
Date (CT)MatchupMarketRelease QuoteClosing LineActualCLV GradeWrite-Up
Nov 8LAL @ DETReboundsOver 6.5 (-130) · Fanatics6.5——Read Write-Up →

NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (75 Beat, 11 Tied, 39 Lost)

WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 7 CT).

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)
Prop Lane WindowBeat CloseTied CloseLost Close
Season to date (from Sep 23 CT)751139
Last 30 days (from Oct 9 CT)751139