By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Cade Cunningham's assists line at 8.5 for BOS @ DET (Oct 20). WagerBird's modeled fair line for BOS @ DET is 9.6 (-169).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS @ DET | 8.5 (-120) | — | 8 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Insufficient 6-game box-score history to measure book step-lag.
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 · vs BOS | 8.5 | — | 8 | -0.5 |
Cunningham's dominant creation role keeps a high assist total attainable even in a slower matchup.
9.9 AST · 33.9 MIN · 64 GAMES — Cunningham averaged 9.9 assists in 33.9 minutes over 64 games last season. His expected 35-minute workload provides a familiar amount of time directing the offense rather than requiring an exceptional minutes spike.
45.2% AST RATE · 30.5% USAGE — Cunningham combined a 45.2% assist rate with 30.5% usage, concentrating both decisions and creation in his hands. Detroit's official rotation assessment keeps him at the center of an offense with Duren as a primary complementary finisher.
Boston can contest the receiving shooters well enough that Cunningham's good passes do not become assists. Coverage that invites his own scoring, or a reduced interior finishing workload for Duren, can also keep the distribution total short.
Settlement Rule: CASHES CADE CUNNINGHAM FULL GAME ASSISTS OVER 8.5 WITH AT LEAST 9 ASSISTS; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Detroit Pistons's 5 primary contributors.
| Detroit Pistons Contributor | Oct 28 vs CHA | Oct 30 @ BKN | Nov 2 @ CHA | Nov 4 vs PHI | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham DET · Points | 23.5 | 23.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Jalen Duren DET · Points | — | — | — | — | 0.0 | — | Flat → |
| John Collins DET · Points | 14.5 | 14.5 | 12.5 | 11.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Duncan Robinson DET · Points | 12.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 14.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Ausar Thompson DET · Points | 9.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Cade Cunningham prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | DET @ BKN | Assists | Under 9.5 (-105) · Fanatics | 9.5 | 4 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 20 | BOS @ DET | Assists | Over 8.5 (-122) · FanDuel | 8.5 | 8 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Cunningham's current assist rate and Detroit's secondary creation keep the central expectation below ten.
Counter-Case: Brooklyn can give up clean finishes and open jumpers that turn Cunningham's passes into assists at an elevated rate. A close finish or overtime can extend his workload, and strong shooting from Robinson can push the assist total past the threshold.
Cunningham's dominant creation role keeps a high assist total attainable even in a slower matchup.
Counter-Case: Boston can contest the receiving shooters well enough that Cunningham's good passes do not become assists. Coverage that invites his own scoring, or a reduced interior finishing workload for Duren, can also keep the distribution total short.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |