John Collins (NBA) Posted Points Line Trajectory & CLV Record
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Sportsbook Posted Points Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 25 to Nov 4), sportsbooks adjusted John Collins's posted points line downward in 3 of 5 game-over-game steps from 14.5 to 11.5 (-3.0).
6-Game Posted Points Ledger (John Collins)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET @ PHI | 14.5 (-115) | — | 16 | Over | |
| DET @ NYK | 15.5 (-104) | +1.0 | 2 | Under | |
| CHA @ DET | 14.5 (-102) | -1.0 | 4 | Under | |
| DET @ BKN | 14.5 (-110) | 0.0 | 4 | Under | |
| DET @ CHA | 12.5 (+100) | -2.0 | 4 | Under | |
| PHI @ DET | 11.5 (-104) | -1.0 | 16 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
John Collins Points Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Books adjusted -3.0 vs. -6.8 actual output delta (-3.8 Book Over-Adjustment).
- Window Open Line
- 14.5
- Current Posted Line
- 11.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- -3.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 7.7
- Actual Output Delta
- -6.8
- Modeled Fair Value
- —
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 · @ PHI | 14.5 | — | 16 | +1.5 |
| Oct 27 · @ NYK | 15.5 | +1.0 | 2 | -13.5 |
| Oct 28 · vs CHA | 14.5 | -1.0 | 4 | -10.5 |
| Oct 30 · @ BKN | 14.5 | 0.0 | 4 | -10.5 |
| Nov 2 · @ CHA | 12.5 | -2.0 | 4 | -8.5 |
| Nov 4 · vs PHI | 11.5 | -1.0 | 16 | +4.5 |
John Collins Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)
No archived prop write-ups recorded yet for John Collins.
No archived prop write-up receipts recorded yet for John Collins.
NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |