Results · as graded

What hit.

And what beat the close.

Two ways to judge a pick. Did it win? And did it beat the close: a better number than the market settled on by game time? That second one is closing line value (CLV), the number sportsbooks use to spot a sharp bettor. Every pick we release is graded both ways, at the book we released it at.

Every morning

Yesterday’s winner, and why.

The best winner from the board, with the Brief behind it, in your inbox before the first game.

A sample of recent winners

Up to two per sport from games since Oct 9, each with a short version of the Brief it posted with before the game. The full Brief, every driver, the projection and the whole board are inside the Terminal for paid accounts.

See the full board →

NFL · DAL @ GB · Spread · Full gameWin

Green Bay Packers +1.5 -118

62 signal strength · 3U play

Final · DAL 13 · GB 23

The why · short version

Green Bay's rushing opportunities against Dallas's inconsistent run defense support enough sustained drives to cover the home spread.

Run-lane advantageFundamentalDAL 168.4 RUSH YDS ALLOWED/GAME · 241 VS TB
Love's scoring optionsFundamentalWATSON 6 REC · 143 YDS · 2 TD VS CHI

Red Team Dallas can turn extra rest into a better tackling performance and make Green Bay's rushing gains less reliable.

Full Brief in the Terminal →

CFB · NEB @ ORE · Total · First halfWin

Under 27.5 -125

58 signal strength · 3U play

Final · NEB 14 · ORE 17

The why · short version

Clock-consuming opening drives and Oregon's lower recent halftime scoring keep the combined first-half total below 27.5.

Oregon's recent halftime scoringFundamental13 + 6 OREGON 1H PTS · 2 PRECEDING HALVES
Early drive continuityFundamentalEARLY DRIVE CONTINUITY · CLOCK CONSUMPTION

Red Team A healthy Dante Moore return could lift Oregon's passing output, and explosive receiver production could break open otherwise clock-heavy possessions.

Full Brief in the Terminal →

MLB · TB @ CLE · Money Line · Full gameWin

Tampa Bay Rays -109

62 signal strength · 3U play

Final · TB 7 · CLE 3

The why · short version

Tampa Bay's stronger contact-oriented offense and Martinez's control give the Rays a better route to sustained scoring than Cleveland's opener-and-bulk sequence.

More production against rightiesFundamentalVS RHP · TB .751 OPS · CLE .706 OPS
Control protects the basepathsFundamentalMARTINEZ 3.6% BB · ARMSTRONG 12.3% BB

Red Team Armstrong can retire the top of the order and turn a clean game over to Cleveland's rested bullpen.

Full Brief in the Terminal →

NHL · CBJ @ MIN · Money Line · Full gameWin

Minnesota Wild -175

48 signal strength · 2.5U play

Final · CBJ 1 · MIN 2

The why · short version

Minnesota's rest advantage and stronger goaltending and special-teams profile can overcome its depleted defense.

Wallstedt's early-season foundationFundamentalWALLSTEDT · .920 SV% · +6.1 GSAX
Power-play route to separationFundamentalMIN PP 33.3% · CBJ PK 61.1%

Red Team Minnesota's depleted defense can concede clean slot looks before its forwards recover.

Full Brief in the Terminal →

WNBA · GS @ LV · Spread · Full gameWin

Golden State Valkyries +5 -112

99 signal strength · 5U play · GEM

Final · GS 87 · LV 77

Soccer · CFM @ SEA · Team Total · Full gameWin

Seattle Sounders Under 2.5 -144

66 signal strength · 3.5U play

Final · CFM 1 · SEA 1

The why · short version

Seattle's measured home scoring output and the short turnaround favor a productive attack that stops short of a third goal.

A measured home ceilingFundamental23 HOME GOALS · 14 MATCHES · 1.75 XGF
Road concessions exceed chancesFundamental36 ROAD GA · 13 MATCHES · 1.67 XGA

Red Team An early Seattle goal can force Montreal to open its shape and expose space behind the wingbacks.

Full Brief in the Terminal →

NFL · LAC @ KC · Spread · Full gameWin

Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 -110

96 signal strength · 5U play · GEM

Final · LAC 6 · KC 22

The why · short version

Kansas City's rested offense and active defensive front can build enough margin against a Chargers line missing Rashawn Slater to clear the full-game spread.

Protection deficitFundamentalSLATER IR · 5 SACKS · 39 YDS LOST
Rested run supportFundamentalWEEK 5 BYE · WALKER 22 CAR · 177 YDS

Red Team Joe Alt could return and stabilize one side of Herbert's protection.

Full Brief in the Terminal →

CFB · WAKE @ CAL · Team Total · Full gameWin

Wake Forest Demon Deacons Over 31.5 -105

58 signal strength · 3U play

Final · WAKE 41 · CAL 7

The why · short version

Wake's efficient passing and complementary receiving production can sustain enough touchdown drives to clear its team total.

Complementary receiving productionFundamentalHERNANDEZ 19 REC/204 YDS · FOLEY 11 REC/210 YDS

Red Team California can keep its safeties deep and make Wake finish long drives through short completions.

Full Brief in the Terminal →

A sample, not the full record: picks from the live winners feed, refreshed as games settle. The Brief shown here is shortened; the full version is in the Terminal.

Closing line value · CLV

The number books use
to spot sharp bettors.

What it is

The closing line is the market’s final number, set by every dollar bet up to kickoff. A pick has CLV when the book we released it at closed at a worse price or a worse line for the bettor than ours.

Why books watch it

Over a week, wins and losses swing with luck. Beating the close is the market agreeing your number was right before the game was played. Books judge accounts by it and limit the ones that beat it consistently.

Why it’s here

Anyone can show wins. We show the number the books care about, for every pick we release, at the book we released it at, win or lose.

55%of every pick we released in the last 7 days closed at a worse number for the bettor than the one we released, at the same book. 109 of 200, every sport.

Closing line value by sportThrough Sun, Oct 18 · updated daily

Sport	Window	Showed CLV	Picks
CFBLast 7 days	Last 7 days	66%	47 of 71
NHLLast 30 days	Last 30 days	61%	85 of 140
MLBLast 30 days	Last 30 days	57%	110 of 194
WNBALast 30 days	Last 30 days	57%	13 of 23
NFLLast 30 days	Last 30 days	51%	58 of 114
SoccerLast 30 days	Last 30 days	43%	56 of 130

Each sport shows its last 7 days. When its last 30 days reads higher, or the week has fewer than 20 picks to measure, it shows the 30 days instead. The tick marks 50%.

How it’s measured

Same book. Its own close.

The close is the market’s last word on a number. If the book we released a pick at closed it at a worse price or a worse line for the bettor, the release beat the close.

Released at the book-110

→

Same book, at close-125

The close got more expensive. Our -110 was the better number: closing line value.

Same book only. Never another book’s close.
Same line, worse price for the bettor than ours counts for us; same price counts against.
Line moved our way counts for us; moved the other way counts against.
Every released pick with a closing price at that book is measured, win or lose.

See the next ones before the game. Get in for $39.

Get in for $39→

What hit.

Yesterday’s winner, and why.

Green Bay Packers +1.5 -118

Under 27.5 -125

Tampa Bay Rays -109

Minnesota Wild -175

Golden State Valkyries +5 -112

Seattle Sounders Under 2.5 -144

Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 -110

Wake Forest Demon Deacons Over 31.5 -105

The number books useto spot sharp bettors.

Same book. Its own close.

The number books use
to spot sharp bettors.