SMT 101

Principles of Sports Markets

9 lessons · the dots are the screens each lesson uses

1. 01
   Market Structure and Settlement

   Operators, participants, positions, and how a position settles as a win, loss, push or void

   Worksheet · Position Record
2. 02
   Market Types and Payoffs

   Moneyline, spread, total, segment, team-total, player and outright markets, and how each pays

   Worksheet · Market Reader
3. 03
   Price Notation

   American, decimal and fractional prices, and how to convert between them

   Worksheet · Price Conversion Card
4. 04
   Implied Probability

   Turning any price into the win rate it requires to break even

   Worksheet · Implied Probability Sheet
5. 05
   Operator Margin

   Measuring the overround and margin in a market, and estimating fair probabilities

   Worksheet · Margin Sheet
6. 06
   Price Formation and Movement

   How opening prices are set, line moves versus price moves, and key numbers

   Worksheet · Move Log
7. 07
   Market Efficiency and the Closing Price

   Why the closing price is the reference, and how to compare a price with it

   Worksheet · Close Comparison
8. 08
   Position Sizing and Capital Allocation

   Units, exposure, runs of losses, correlation, and units in the Terminal

   Worksheet · Sizing Sheet
9. 09
   Applied Session: The Odds Screen and the Board

   A guided walkthrough of both screens using every method in the course

   Worksheet · Game Routine Card

SMT 201

Signals and Market Value

10 lessons · the dots are the screens each lesson uses

1. 01
   The Closing Price as the Scorecard

   Closing-line value in points and in price, against the same book’s close

   Worksheet · Closing-line value worksheet
2. 02
   The Model Price and the Market Price

   Model price, market price, edge, and why the Terminal’s price is the price to trade against

   Worksheet · Edge ledger
3. 03
   Signal Strength

   The 25 to 100 rating: what it tells you and what it does not

   Worksheet · Signal Strength reading checklist
4. 04
   From Strength to Size

   STR ÷ 20 to the nearest half unit, the 2% cap, and the exposure protocol

   Worksheet · Exposure ledger
5. 05
   The Limit Price

   Model price plus the minimum edge, fill or pass, and shopping the operators

   Worksheet · Limit price worksheet
6. 06
   Reading the Board

   Time, Position, WB, Now, STR, Units, Brief, Ahead/Behind, and the GEM designation

   Worksheet · Board reading checklist
7. 07
   The Signal Sheet

   The day’s positions with their strength and size, and the day’s exposure

   Worksheet · Daily exposure sheet
8. 08
   The Brief and the Research Behind a Position

   What the Brief holds, arguing the other side, and the research note

   Worksheet · Research note template
9. 09
   Grading the Board Against the Close

   Ahead and behind counted over many positions, before any result

   Worksheet · Grading ledger
10. 10
    Applied Session: One Slate on the Board

    The full routine from release to close, with the record row

    Worksheet · Session record sheet

SMT 210

Player Markets

8 lessons · the dots are the screens each lesson uses

1. 01
   The Player Market

   What a prop is, who prices it, and why its margin is larger

   Worksheet · Player market checklist
2. 02
   Reading a Prop Price

   Over and under at −115 and −105, implied probability, the fair price and the fee

   Worksheet · Prop price worksheet
3. 03
   Lines, Alternates and Key Numbers

   The posted line, alternate lines, the half point and the push

   Worksheet · Line ladder worksheet
4. 04
   Correlation Inside a Game

   A player total and a game total as one exposure, and the game limit

   Worksheet · Game exposure ledger
5. 05
   Sizing a Prop

   Signal Strength to units, the stake, and the exposure protocol per game and per day

   Worksheet · Exposure ledger
6. 06
   Shopping the Prop Price and the Pick’em Comparison

   The same line across operators, and a 2-pick entry against a −110 wager

   Worksheet · Price shop worksheet
7. 07
   Grading Props Against the Close

   Ahead or behind in points and in price, voids, and the record

   Worksheet · Prop record ledger
8. 08
   Applied Session: The Prop Board

   The full routine on one player line, from the Prop Board to the record row

   Worksheet · Session record sheet

SMT 220

Price Dynamics

6 lessons · the dots are the screens each lesson uses

1. 01
   Seeing a Market Move

   Open to now to close as a picture; the −3.5 to −4.5 move measured in points and in price

   Worksheet · Market path worksheet
2. 02
   Reading the Shape of a Move

   Steady, step and reversal; what each may mean and what the picture cannot say

   Worksheet · Shape reading checklist
3. 03
   Where the Position Sits

   Ahead of or behind the market, in points of line and in points of price

   Worksheet · Position marker worksheet
4. 04
   Volume and the Timing of a Move

   Limits at the open, the minutes after a step, and the close as the last point

   Worksheet · Timing ledger
5. 05
   From Picture to Decision

   The limit price drawn on the picture; fill or pass read visually

   Worksheet · Limit line worksheet
6. 06
   Applied Session: WagerVision

   One market read from open to close with every method in the course

   Worksheet · Session record sheet

SMT 301

Systematic Trading

10 lessons · the dots are the screens each lesson uses

1. 01
   Why a System

   Rules written before the game beat decisions made during it; passing is a position

   Worksheet · Six Questions sheet
2. 02
   Choosing the Sector

   One sport or market family first; what the system trades and what it skips

   Worksheet · Sector sheet
3. 03
   The Rulebook

   One page: what, when, the price needed, the worst price, the sizing rule, the pause rule, the review date

   Worksheet · Rulebook worksheet
4. 04
   Sizing Inside the System

   0.4% units, STR ÷ 20, the exposure protocol in units, fixed and proportional units

   Worksheet · Exposure ledger
5. 05
   Execution Inside the System

   The limit price, shopping the operators, fill or pass, stake limits

   Worksheet · Execution sheet
6. 06
   Variance and the Pause Rule

   The run-of-losses table, drawdown at sound sizing, when the system pauses

   Worksheet · Drawdown line
7. 07
   The Record as the Grade

   The seven columns, units won and lost, running return, closing-line value, losses stay in

   Worksheet · Record template
8. 08
   Cutting the Record

   The record by sector, market, price range and size

   Worksheet · Cut sheet
9. 09
   The Scheduled Review

   Rules change only at a review; keep, cut or change; sample size before a result means anything

   Worksheet · Review sheet
10. 10
    Applied Session: One Slate on the Terminal

    Run the system on one slate in the Board and the Odds Screen, log it, and grade it

    Worksheet · Slate sheet

SMT 401

Position Management

9 lessons · the dots are the screens each lesson uses

1. 01
   What a Hedge Is

   A hedge as a second position; the four outcomes of a paired position priced at −110 each; the fee paid twice

   Worksheet · Hedge Pricing worksheet
2. 02
   The Exits a Venue Offers

   Cash out at a book, selling a contract on an exchange, no exit in pick’em; each exit as a price

   Worksheet · Exit Price worksheet
3. 03
   Pricing a Cash-Out

   The implied price inside a cash-out offer, compared with the live market; the fee in the offer

   Worksheet · Cash-Out Reader
4. 04
   The Middle

   A spread position paired with the other side at a different number; what each number between pays

   Worksheet · Middle worksheet
5. 05
   Hedging Across Venues

   The same game at a book and a prediction market; the contract as the hedge; the two fees added

   Worksheet · Cross-Venue Hedge sheet
6. 06
   When the Model Says Hedge

   The hedge as a position with its own edge: the model price against the hedge price; the no-hedge default

   Worksheet · Hedge Decision card
7. 07
   Hedging in Units

   The hedge inside the exposure protocol; the game total after a hedge; when a hedge breaches the cap

   Worksheet · Exposure ledger, hedge rows
8. 08
   Recording and Grading a Hedge

   Two rows, one position; the close for each leg; the paired result in the record

   Worksheet · Record rows for a pair
9. 09
   Applied Session: One Position, Every Exit

   One live position taken at the release; every exit priced at three points in time; the decision at each

   Worksheet · Exit Session sheet

SMT 410

Market Timing

9 lessons · the dots are the screens each lesson uses

1. 01
   The Week as a Market

   Opener, early week, the morning shop, the release, the start; limits rising through the week

   Worksheet · Week Timeline worksheet
2. 02
   Where the Opener Comes From

   How an opening number is set and why it moves first; the opener against the model

   Worksheet · Opener worksheet
3. 03
   Taking the Release Price or Waiting

   The release price as the Board posts it; the limit price as the line to wait for; the cost of waiting, measured

   Worksheet · Release-or-Wait card
4. 04
   Building a Position in Fills

   Two fills at two prices; the average price; the size cap applied to the sum, not each fill

   Worksheet · Fill Ledger
5. 05
   Key Numbers on the Way In

   The half point at 3 and 7; buying the half point as a price; when alternate lines are cheaper than waiting

   Worksheet · Key Number worksheet
6. 06
   The Market Path and the Position

   The position marked on WagerVision; ahead or behind at each point; what the path says and what it cannot

   Worksheet · Position Marker worksheet
7. 07
   The Last Hour

   Lineup confirmation, the late move, the limit at its highest; when the number crosses the limit late

   Worksheet · Last-Hour checklist
8. 08
   The Position Carried into the Game

   The pre-game market ends at kickoff and the live market opens at a new price; the position’s grade is set

   Worksheet · Kickoff card
9. 09
   Applied Session: One Week, One Position

   One game run across the week on a live market: opener, shop, fills, path, close, grade

   Worksheet · Week Session sheet

SMT 420

Live Market Trading

10 lessons · the dots are the screens each lesson uses

1. 01
   The Live Market

   The pre-game line restated for the score and the time left; the live fee, wider than pre-game, measured

   Worksheet · Live Fee worksheet
2. 02
   Score, Clock and the Line

   How the number moves with each score and with time; the line as expected margin from here

   Worksheet · Live Line reader
3. 03
   The Live Model Price

   The Terminal’s live price and why it is the price to trade against; Signal Strength on a live position

   Worksheet · Live Signal card
4. 04
   Latency and the Suspended Market

   Why the market suspends; what a fill means when the number is moving; the limit price as protection

   Worksheet · Suspension checklist
5. 05
   Sizing a Live Position

   Units from Signal Strength; the exposure protocol with pre-game and live positions in one game

   Worksheet · Exposure ledger, live rows
6. 06
   Managing the Pre-Game Position

   The pre-game position’s live price; the hedge, the add, the hold, each as a price decision

   Worksheet · Carry card
7. 07
   Halftime

   The halftime line as a new market; the second-half number against the model

   Worksheet · Halftime worksheet
8. 08
   Live Exits

   Cash out live, sell a live contract, let it settle; each priced

   Worksheet · Live Exit worksheet
9. 09
   Grading Live Positions

   The live close as the final line before settlement; closing-line value live; the record columns for a live row

   Worksheet · Live record rows
10. 10
    Applied Session: One Game, Live

    One game traded live from kickoff to the final with a pre-game position carried in; every decision logged

    Worksheet · Live Session sheet

SMT 430

Prediction Markets and Exchanges

8 lessons · the dots are the screens each lesson uses

1. 01
   The Contract as a Price

   Yes and No in cents; the cent of cost; the contract against the moneyline

   Worksheet · Contract-to-Line worksheet
2. 02
   The Order Book

   Bids, asks, depth; the limit order as the limit price made literal

   Worksheet · Order Book reader
3. 03
   Spreads and Totals as Contracts

   Where the exchange prices the spread and the total; the bucket contract

   Worksheet · Contract Map
4. 04
   Pricing the Exchange Against the Book

   The same game both ways; the fee at each; when the contract is the better price

   Worksheet · Venue Comparison sheet
5. 05
   Selling Early

   The sale as an exit priced by the market, not the operator; the fee on the way out

   Worksheet · Early Sale worksheet
6. 06
   Sizing Contracts

   Contracts in units; the exposure protocol across venues

   Worksheet · Exposure ledger, contract rows
7. 07
   Regulation and the Venue Map

   Exchange venues against state sportsbooks; what each may list; Kalshi, ProphetX, Polymarket, OG Markets

   Worksheet · Venue Map
8. 08
   Applied Session: One Game, Two Venues

   One game priced at a sportsbook and on an exchange; the better price taken; the sale or settlement; the record

   Worksheet · Two-Venue Session sheet

SMT 440

Correlation and Portfolio Exposure

8 lessons · the dots are the screens each lesson uses

1. 01
   One Risk or Two

   When two results move together; one game’s spread and total

   Worksheet · Pair worksheet
2. 02
   Player Lines and the Game

   A player’s total against the team’s total; the prop that is the spread in disguise

   Worksheet · Player-Game Pair sheet
3. 03
   Parlays as Correlated Positions

   The parlay’s price against the product of its legs; why a correlated parlay is priced differently

   Worksheet · Parlay Pricing worksheet
4. 04
   Same Game, Many Positions

   Pre-game, live, player and contract positions in one game as one exposure; the game cap applied to the sum

   Worksheet · Game Exposure ledger
5. 05
   Day and Week Exposure

   The day cap across sectors; the week as the review period; the ledger as the only source

   Worksheet · Day and Week ledger
6. 06
   Offsetting Positions

   When a second position reduces exposure and when it only looks like it does

   Worksheet · Offset worksheet
7. 07
   The Record with Correlated Rows

   Grouping rows that share a risk; the paired grade

   Worksheet · Record groups
8. 08
   Applied Session: One Slate, Every Market

   One slate with game, player and live positions in one game; exposure totaled; the pair priced

   Worksheet · Slate Exposure sheet

SMT 450

Arbitrage and Price Discrepancy

Review: lesson titles drawn by Design from the course map. The Course lane writes and confirms the lessons.

7 lessons

1. 01
   One Price, Two Venues

   Why two venues can disagree on the same outcome, and how long a gap lasts

2. 02
   Finding the Gap

   Reading the Odds Screen across sportsbooks and exchanges for the same market

3. 03
   The Fees Inside the Gap

   Each side’s fee subtracted; when a gap is a price and when it is only the fee

4. 04
   Sportsbook Against Exchange

   A sportsbook line against a contract price; the two settlement rules

5. 05
   Sizing Both Sides

   Stakes that pay the same either way; the exposure protocol across two venues

6. 06
   Limits, Voids and Settlement

   What breaks a two-sided position: a limit, a void, a different settlement rule

7. 07
   Applied Session: One Gap, Both Sides

   One discrepancy found, priced, sized and recorded as one position

SMT 501

Market Making

Review: lesson titles drawn by Design from the course map. The Course lane writes and confirms the lessons.

10 lessons

1. 01
   The Sportsbook as Market Maker

   A sportsbook prices to balance and to hold, not to oppose the trader

2. 02
   Setting the Opener

   Where an opening number comes from and who it is set for

3. 03
   Pricing the Fee

   How the margin is built into both sides, and where it widens

4. 04
   Moving a Line on Money

   Liability, the size of the move and the speed of it

5. 05
   Moving a Line on Information

   News, lineups and the market’s own read; the move that is not money

6. 06
   Setting Limits

   Why limits start low and rise toward the start

7. 07
   Sharp and Public Action

   Two kinds of money and the different answer a desk gives each

8. 08
   The Book’s Model Against the Terminal’s

   The same game priced from both chairs

9. 09
   Reading a Desk’s Moves

   A desk’s moves read from the trader’s chair

10. 10
    Applied Session: One Game, Open to Close

    One game priced the way a desk prices it, every move explained

SMT 510

Sportsbook Risk Management

Review: lesson titles drawn by Design from the course map. The Course lane writes and confirms the lessons.

10 lessons

1. 01
   One Sport’s Book as a Position

   The book as one position with many outcomes

2. 02
   Liability by Outcome

   What the book pays on each result; reading the ledger

3. 03
   Hold

   The fee the book keeps across a market, measured

4. 04
   The Hedge the Book Makes

   When a desk lays off risk, and where

5. 05
   Pricing Player Markets

   The wider fee and the correlation inside a book’s props

6. 06
   Pricing In-Play

   The live book: score, clock, suspension and the live fee

7. 07
   Exposure Across Sectors

   One desk, many sports; the exposure caps

8. 08
   Settlement

   Grading the book: results, voids and the rules

9. 09
   The Desk’s Record and Review

   The desk’s own record, read at a scheduled review

10. 10
    Applied Session: One Sport’s Book

    One sport’s book run on the Terminal as the desk’s screen

SMT 601

Data and the Terminal API

Review: lesson titles drawn by Design from the course map. The Course lane writes and confirms the lessons.

9 lessons

1. 01
   The Terminal as Data

   What the Terminal holds: tickers, prices, Signal Strength, the close, the record

2. 02
   Keys and Rate Limits

   Access, keys and the limits on calls

3. 03
   The Data Model

   Tickers, Signal Strength and units as fields

4. 04
   Pulling the Board

   Released positions into your own system

5. 05
   Pulling the Odds Screen

   Every operator’s price for one market

6. 06
   The Closing-Line Feed

   The close, by operator, for grading

7. 07
   The Record as Data

   Your record rows pulled and joined to the close

8. 08
   Alerts at the Limit Price

   An alert when a ticker crosses your limit price

9. 09
   Applied Session: One Slate, Your Own System

   One slate pulled into your own sheet, graded against the close

SMT 610

Systems in Code

Review: lesson titles drawn by Design from the course map. The Course lane writes and confirms the lessons.

10 lessons

1. 01
   The Rulebook as Code

   The one-page rulebook restated as rules a program runs

2. 02
   The Ticker List

   Which markets the build watches

3. 03
   Sizing in Code

   Units from Signal Strength, inside the cap

4. 04
   Exposure in Code

   Game, day and week caps enforced by the build

5. 05
   The Pause Rule

   The rule that stops the build after a drawdown

6. 06
   The Composition Rule

   Independent, correlated or combined: how positions combine

7. 07
   Backtesting Against the Terminal’s History

   The rulebook run on past slates, read without hindsight

8. 08
   The Review as a Scheduled Job

   The review run on a schedule, not on a feeling

9. 09
   The Record Written by the Build

   Every row written by the build itself

10. 10
    Applied Session: Ship One Build

    One build shipped and its first ten positions taken

SMT 620

Algorithmic Execution

Review: lesson titles drawn by Design from the course map. The Course lane writes and confirms the lessons.

10 lessons

1. 01
   The Exchange as an API

   Kalshi as the worked exchange; ProphetX, Polymarket and OG Markets as the second venue

2. 02
   Keys and the Account

   Access, keys and the account the build trades

3. 03
   The Order Book in Code

   Bids, asks and depth read by a program

4. 04
   Limit Orders and Cancels

   The limit price made literal, and the cancel

5. 05
   Fills

   Partial fills, average price and the size cap

6. 06
   Positions and Settlement

   Open contracts, settlement and the cash ledger

7. 07
   Latency

   Time between the price and the fill

8. 08
   The Kill Switch

   The control that stops every order at once

9. 09
   The Record from the Fills

   The verified record written from the fills

10. 10
    Applied Session: One Build on Kalshi

    One build trading contracts on Kalshi under its rulebook