By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Nazem Kadri's shots on goal line at 2.5 for COL @ DAL (Oct 13). WagerBird's modeled fair line for COL @ DAL is 2.6 (+106).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL @ DAL | 2.5 (+145) | — | 3 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.5).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 · vs LA | 2.5 | — | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 3 · vs STL | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Oct 7 · @ WPG | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Oct 8 · @ CGY | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 10 · vs TOR | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 13 · @ DAL | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
Kadri’s historical three-shot frequency and active second-line workload support clearing the posted shots threshold.
213 SOG · 77 GP · 40 GAMES WITH 3+ — Kadri’s combined Calgary and Colorado season included 40 games with at least three shots. That record supplies a repeatable shooting pathway rather than relying on a single recent Avalanche performance.
19.0 MIN · PP2 · 20:50 LAST GAME — Kadri plays in the projected Landeskog-Nelson combination, providing Colorado with an attacking unit separate from MacKinnon’s line. His three shots in 20:50 on October 10 and PP2 assignment give him opportunities to accumulate attempts across different game situations.
Kadri can spend his second-line touches passing to Nelson instead of taking the final shot. Dallas can block his attempts, and a low-penalty game can remove the extra opportunities available to the second power-play unit.
Settlement Rule: CASHES NAZEM KADRI OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH 3+ OFFICIAL SOG; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Colorado Avalanche's 5 primary contributors.
| Colorado Avalanche Contributor | Nov 2 @ CHI | Nov 3 @ CBJ | Nov 5 vs NAS | Nov 7 vs DET | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon COL · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Martin Necas COL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Cale Makar COL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Nazem Kadri COL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Brock Nelson COL · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
1 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Nazem Kadri prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13 | COL @ DAL | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+135) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 3 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 8 | COL @ CGY | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+126) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Kadri’s historical three-shot frequency and active second-line workload support clearing the posted shots threshold.
Counter-Case: Kadri can spend his second-line touches passing to Nelson instead of taking the final shot. Dallas can block his attempts, and a low-penalty game can remove the extra opportunities available to the second power-play unit.
Kadri's Colorado shot usage and projected Nelson-Landeskog line give him a route to three shots.
Counter-Case: Colorado can protect a lead with fewer second-line offensive shifts. Kadri can generate attempts that are blocked or miss the net, leaving him at two shots despite an active game.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |