By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Nazem Kadri's shots on goal line at 2.5 for COL @ CGY (Oct 8). WagerBird's modeled fair line for COL @ CGY is 2.9 (-119).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL @ CGY | 2.5 (+110) | — | 2 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.5).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 · vs LA | 2.5 | — | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 3 · vs STL | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Oct 7 · @ WPG | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Oct 8 · @ CGY | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
Kadri's Colorado shot usage and projected Nelson-Landeskog line give him a route to three shots.
38 SHOTS · 16 COLORADO GAMES · 6 SHOTS IN FIRST 2 — Kadri's 38 shots in 16 Colorado games last season show he was willing to finish possessions after changing teams. Six shots through the club's first two games reinforce his ability to reach the target without needing a goal.
17–19 EXPECTED MINUTES · 29.91 CALGARY SHOTS ALLOWED — Projected alongside Nelson and Landeskog, Kadri has his own line's offensive possessions rather than depending entirely on MacKinnon's shifts. Calgary's prior shot-allowance rate supports a 2.85-shot central estimate, although Colorado's travel limits the cushion.
Colorado can protect a lead with fewer second-line offensive shifts. Kadri can generate attempts that are blocked or miss the net, leaving him at two shots despite an active game.
Settlement Rule: CASHES NAZEM KADRI FULL GAME SHOTS ON GOAL OVER 2.5 WITH THREE OR MORE SHOTS; THE HALF-SHOT LINE CANNOT PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Colorado Avalanche's 5 primary contributors.
| Colorado Avalanche Contributor | Nov 2 @ CHI | Nov 3 @ CBJ | Nov 5 vs NAS | Nov 7 vs DET | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon COL · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Cale Makar COL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Martin Necas COL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Nazem Kadri COL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Gabriel Landeskog COL · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
1 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Nazem Kadri prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13 | COL @ DAL | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+135) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 3 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 8 | COL @ CGY | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+126) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Kadri’s historical three-shot frequency and active second-line workload support clearing the posted shots threshold.
Counter-Case: Kadri can spend his second-line touches passing to Nelson instead of taking the final shot. Dallas can block his attempts, and a low-penalty game can remove the extra opportunities available to the second power-play unit.
Kadri's Colorado shot usage and projected Nelson-Landeskog line give him a route to three shots.
Counter-Case: Colorado can protect a lead with fewer second-line offensive shifts. Kadri can generate attempts that are blocked or miss the net, leaving him at two shots despite an active game.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |