NHL Player Prop & CLV DossierTeam: COLPosted Line Trajectory: Flat (0.0 over 6 games)

Nathan MacKinnon (NHL) Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory & CLV Record

Name: Nathan MacKinnon Historical Sportsbook Posted Prop Line Trajectory & CLV Ledger
Creator: WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released Sat, Oct 3, 8:00 PM CT · Last updated (CT) Sat, Nov 7, 10:57 AM CT

NHL Player Props CLV Counts

50 Beat · 10 Tied · 21 Lost

Nathan MacKinnon Releases: 2 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost

Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)

Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game.

Posted Book Line

Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 28 to Nov 7), Nathan MacKinnon's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 3.5.

6-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Nathan MacKinnon)

America/Chicago (CT)

Date (CT)	Matchup	Posted Line	Move	Actual	Result
Oct 28	NJ @ COL	3.5 (-130)	—	2	Under
Oct 31	CGY @ COL	3.5 (-160)	0.0	6	Over
Nov 2	COL @ CHI	3.5 (-132)	0.0	2	Under
Nov 3	COL @ CBJ	3.5 (+100)	0.0	1	Under
Nov 5	NAS @ COL	3.5 (-130)	0.0	1	Under
Nov 7	DET @ COL	3.5 (-115)	0.0	—	Upcoming

Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.

Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Ahead of Production6-Game Window

Nathan MacKinnon Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)

Books adjusted 0.0 vs. -1.1 actual output delta (-1.1 Book Over-Adjustment).

Unpriced Book Step-Lag-1.1Max Single-Game Book Step: 0.0

Window Open Line: 3.5
Current Posted Line: 3.5
Book Cumulative Step: 0.0
Actual Window Avg: 2.4
Actual Output Delta: -1.1
Modeled Fair Value: —

Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output

Book Line Actual Stat

Game (CT)	Posted Line	Book Step	Actual	Box Surplus
Oct 28 · vs NJ	3.5	—	2	-1.5
Oct 31 · vs CGY	3.5	0.0	6	+2.5
Nov 2 · @ CHI	3.5	0.0	2	-1.5
Nov 3 · @ CBJ	3.5	0.0	1	-2.5
Nov 5 · vs NAS	3.5	0.0	1	-2.5
Nov 7 · vs DET	3.5	0.0	—	—

Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault3 Tracked Write-Ups

Nathan MacKinnon Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (2 Beat, 0 Tied, 1 Lost)

2 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 3 settled Nathan MacKinnon prop write-ups.

Nathan MacKinnon CLV Counts

2 Beat · 0 Tied · 1 Lost

3 Settled CLV Receipts

Date (CT)	Matchup	Market	Release Quote	Closing Line	Actual	CLV Grade	Write-Up
Oct 13	COL @ DAL	Shots on Goal	Over 3.5 (-148) · FanDuel	3.5	2	Lost	Read Write-Up →
Oct 8	COL @ CGY	Shots on Goal	Over 3.5 (-140) · Fanatics	3.5	2	Beat	Read Write-Up →
Oct 3	STL @ COL	Shots on Goal	Over 3.5 (-102) · FanDuel	3.5	4	Beat	Read Write-Up →

Archived Settled Nathan MacKinnon Prop Write-Ups

Oct 13 CT · COL @ DAL · Shots on GoalFull Write-Up →

MacKinnon’s large share of Colorado’s shooting and extensive offensive deployment support another four-shot game.

Counter-Case: Dallas can close MacKinnon’s central shooting lanes and make him move the puck to Lehkonen or Necas. A comfortable Colorado lead can also shorten his late attacking workload, leaving a productive three-shot night short of the requirement.

Oct 8 CT · COL @ CGY · Shots on GoalFull Write-Up →

MacKinnon's established shot volume and top-line workload put four shots within reach against Calgary.

Counter-Case: Calgary can deny Colorado extended offensive-zone possessions and force MacKinnon into passes rather than clean shots. The Winnipeg-to-Calgary turnaround may shorten his workload, and a slow game can leave him at three shots.

Oct 3 CT · STL @ COL · Shots on GoalFull Write-Up →

MacKinnon's established shot volume and first-line, first-unit role support another high-volume shooting opportunity.

Counter-Case: The line needs at least four shots, and his 4.05-shot projection leaves little room for a quiet game. If St. Louis limits Colorado's time in the offensive zone or MacKinnon shifts toward creating for linemates, he could fall short.

Nathan MacKinnon WagerBird Prop Release & CLV Archive

Date (CT)	Matchup	Market	Release	Close	Actual	CLV Grade
Oct 13	COL @ DAL	Shots on Goal	Over 3.5	3.5	2	Lost
Oct 8	COL @ CGY	Shots on Goal	Over 3.5	3.5	2	Beat
Oct 3	STL @ COL	Shots on Goal	Over 3.5	3.5	4	Beat

NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)

WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)

Prop Lane Window	Beat Close	Tied Close	Lost Close
Season to date (from Sep 23 CT)	50	10	21
Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT)	48	9	21