By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 2 active games (Oct 10 to Oct 13), sportsbooks adjusted Jason Robertson's posted shots on goal line downward in 1 of 1 game-over-game steps from 3.5 to 2.5 (-1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for COL @ DAL is 3.5 (-217).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL @ PIT | 3.5 (+115) | — | 3 | Under | |
| COL @ DAL | 2.5 (-135) | -1.0 | 2 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (-1.0) tracks actual window production (-0.8).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 · vs STL | 3.5 | — | 2 | -1.5 |
| Oct 3 · @ NAS | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Oct 5 · vs SJ | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Oct 8 · @ BUF | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Oct 10 · @ PIT | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Oct 13 · vs COL | 2.5 | -1.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
Robertson’s established shooting volume and first-unit power-play access give him multiple routes to three shots.
294 SOG · 82 GP · 53 GAMES WITH 3+ — Robertson reached three shots in 53 of his 82 regular-season appearances, so his volume was not concentrated in a few unusually busy nights. That distribution supports reaching this threshold without requiring a high-scoring Dallas performance.
21.0 MIN · PP1 · 3 SOG LAST GAME — Robertson’s placement with Hintz and Benn gives him an even-strength route to shooting opportunities, while PP1 adds possessions against fewer defenders. His three shots in 21:36 on October 10 show that the threshold remains accessible within this deployment.
Colorado can keep Robertson outside the middle and turn his attempts into blocks or misses. A Dallas attack spending long stretches defending can leave him below three shots even while he receives his usual offensive assignments.
Settlement Rule: CASHES JASON ROBERTSON OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH 3+ OFFICIAL SOG; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Dallas Stars's 5 primary contributors.
| Dallas Stars Contributor | Oct 31 vs CBJ | Nov 3 @ WAS | Nov 5 @ CBJ | Nov 7 vs SJ | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikko Rantanen DAL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Wyatt Johnston DAL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jason Robertson DAL · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Roope Hintz DAL · Shots on Goal | — | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Miro Heiskanen DAL · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | — | — | 0.0 | Flat → |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Jason Robertson prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | DAL @ CBJ | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-156) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 3 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 13 | COL @ DAL | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-148) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Robertson's sustained shooting volume and first-unit power-play role support three shots without needing a high-scoring game.
Counter-Case: Dallas can build an early lead and spend the final period protecting it instead of generating attacks. If the other forwards take the power-play shooting opportunities while Robertson's attempts are blocked, he can finish with only one or two shots on target.
Robertson’s established shooting volume and first-unit power-play access give him multiple routes to three shots.
Counter-Case: Colorado can keep Robertson outside the middle and turn his attempts into blocks or misses. A Dallas attack spending long stretches defending can leave him below three shots even while he receives his usual offensive assignments.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |