NHL Player Prop & CLV DossierTeam: COLPosted Line Trajectory: Flat (0.0 over 6 games)

Brock Nelson (NHL) Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory & CLV Record

Name: Brock Nelson Historical Sportsbook Posted Prop Line Trajectory & CLV Ledger
Creator: WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released Sat, Oct 3, 8:00 PM CT · Last updated (CT) Sat, Nov 7, 10:56 AM CT

NHL Player Props CLV Counts

50 Beat · 10 Tied · 21 Lost

Brock Nelson Releases: 1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost

Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)

Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game.

Posted Book Line

Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 28 to Nov 7), Brock Nelson's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 1.5.

6-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Brock Nelson)

America/Chicago (CT)

Date (CT)	Matchup	Posted Line	Move	Actual	Result
Oct 28	NJ @ COL	1.5 (-145)	—	3	Over
Oct 31	CGY @ COL	1.5 (-160)	0.0	3	Over
Nov 2	COL @ CHI	1.5 (-148)	0.0	1	Under
Nov 3	COL @ CBJ	1.5 (-115)	0.0	0	Under
Nov 5	NAS @ COL	1.5 (-138)	0.0	1	Under
Nov 7	DET @ COL	1.5 (-122)	0.0	—	Upcoming

Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.

Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Balanced Pricing6-Game Window

Brock Nelson Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)

Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.1).

Unpriced Book Step-Lag+0.1Max Single-Game Book Step: 0.0

Window Open Line: 1.5
Current Posted Line: 1.5
Book Cumulative Step: 0.0
Actual Window Avg: 1.6
Actual Output Delta: +0.1
Modeled Fair Value: —

Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output

Book Line Actual Stat

Game (CT)	Posted Line	Book Step	Actual	Box Surplus
Oct 28 · vs NJ	1.5	—	3	+1.5
Oct 31 · vs CGY	1.5	0.0	3	+1.5
Nov 2 · @ CHI	1.5	0.0	1	-0.5
Nov 3 · @ CBJ	1.5	0.0	0	-1.5
Nov 5 · vs NAS	1.5	0.0	1	-0.5
Nov 7 · vs DET	1.5	0.0	—	—

Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up

Brock Nelson Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (1 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)

1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Brock Nelson prop write-up.

Brock Nelson CLV Counts

1 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost

1 Settled CLV Receipt

Date (CT)	Matchup	Market	Release Quote	Closing Line	Actual	CLV Grade	Write-Up
Oct 3	STL @ COL	Shots on Goal	Over 1.5 (-165) · Fanatics	2.5	1	Beat	Read Write-Up →

Archived Settled Brock Nelson Prop Write-Ups

Oct 3 CT · STL @ COL · Shots on GoalFull Write-Up →

Nelson's projected second-line minutes and recent offensive involvement give him chances to register at least two shots.

Counter-Case: Nelson needs at least two shots, but he recorded only one in 19:14 in the opener. If his role with Landeskog and Kadri leans toward setting up teammates or Colorado has fewer attacking possessions, his shot total could stay at one.

Brock Nelson WagerBird Prop Release & CLV Archive

Date (CT)	Matchup	Market	Release	Close	Actual	CLV Grade
Oct 3	STL @ COL	Shots on Goal	Over 1.5	2.5	1	Beat

NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)

WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)

Prop Lane Window	Beat Close	Tied Close	Lost Close
Season to date (from Sep 23 CT)	50	10	21
Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT)	48	9	21