By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Nathan MacKinnon's shots on goal line at 3.5 for COL @ DAL (Oct 13). WagerBird's modeled fair line for COL @ DAL is 4.2 (-153).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL @ DAL | 3.5 (-115) | — | 2 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.7).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 · vs LA | 3.5 | — | 8 | +4.5 |
| Oct 3 · vs STL | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Oct 7 · @ WPG | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Oct 8 · @ CGY | 3.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -1.5 |
| Oct 10 · vs TOR | 3.5 | 0.0 | 8 | +4.5 |
| Oct 13 · @ DAL | 3.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -1.5 |
MacKinnon’s large share of Colorado’s shooting and extensive offensive deployment support another four-shot game.
350 SOG · 80 GP · 52 GAMES WITH 4+ — MacKinnon accounted for 12.65% of Colorado’s season shots and reached four shots in 52 appearances. His personal shooting workload therefore supplies a substantial route to the required count even when teammates share the scoring.
22.5 MIN · PP1 · 8 OF 33 SHOTS — The Lehkonen-MacKinnon-Necas line and PP1 put MacKinnon on the ice in Colorado’s main attacking combinations. He took eight of the Avalanche’s 33 shots in his latest game, demonstrating how a substantial share of a normal team shot total can flow through him.
Dallas can close MacKinnon’s central shooting lanes and make him move the puck to Lehkonen or Necas. A comfortable Colorado lead can also shorten his late attacking workload, leaving a productive three-shot night short of the requirement.
Settlement Rule: CASHES NATHAN MACKINNON OVER 3.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH 4+ OFFICIAL SOG; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Colorado Avalanche's 5 primary contributors.
| Colorado Avalanche Contributor | Nov 2 @ CHI | Nov 3 @ CBJ | Nov 5 vs NAS | Nov 7 vs DET | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon COL · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Martin Necas COL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Cale Makar COL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Nazem Kadri COL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Brock Nelson COL · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
2 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 3 settled Nathan MacKinnon prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13 | COL @ DAL | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (-148) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 2 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 8 | COL @ CGY | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (-140) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 3 | STL @ COL | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (-102) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 4 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
MacKinnon’s large share of Colorado’s shooting and extensive offensive deployment support another four-shot game.
Counter-Case: Dallas can close MacKinnon’s central shooting lanes and make him move the puck to Lehkonen or Necas. A comfortable Colorado lead can also shorten his late attacking workload, leaving a productive three-shot night short of the requirement.
MacKinnon's established shot volume and top-line workload put four shots within reach against Calgary.
Counter-Case: Calgary can deny Colorado extended offensive-zone possessions and force MacKinnon into passes rather than clean shots. The Winnipeg-to-Calgary turnaround may shorten his workload, and a slow game can leave him at three shots.
MacKinnon's established shot volume and first-line, first-unit role support another high-volume shooting opportunity.
Counter-Case: The line needs at least four shots, and his 4.05-shot projection leaves little room for a quiet game. If St. Louis limits Colorado's time in the offensive zone or MacKinnon shifts toward creating for linemates, he could fall short.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |