By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Nathan MacKinnon's shots on goal line at 3.5 for STL @ COL (Oct 3). WagerBird's modeled fair line for STL @ COL is 4.1 (-136).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL @ COL | 3.5 (-160) | — | 4 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 3 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +2.5 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+2.5 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 · vs LA | 3.5 | — | 8 | +4.5 |
| Oct 3 · vs STL | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +0.5 |
MacKinnon's established shot volume and first-line, first-unit role support another high-volume shooting opportunity.
4.05 Projected Shots; 350 In 80 Games — MacKinnon is projected for 4.05 shots and took 350 shots in 80 games last season. He is expected to play 21-23 minutes, giving him time to reach the four-shot threshold.
8 Opener Shots; 27.71 Allowed Per Game — He is projected on a line with Lehkonen and Necas and on Colorado's first power-play unit, creating opportunities through both his line and special teams. St. Louis allowed 27.71 shots per game last season, and MacKinnon took eight shots in the opener.
The line needs at least four shots, and his 4.05-shot projection leaves little room for a quiet game. If St. Louis limits Colorado's time in the offensive zone or MacKinnon shifts toward creating for linemates, he could fall short.
Settlement Rule: CASHES NATHAN MACKINNON OVER 3.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST 4 SHOTS ON GOAL. · NO PUSH ON THE HALF
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Colorado Avalanche's 5 primary contributors.
| Colorado Avalanche Contributor | Nov 2 @ CHI | Nov 3 @ CBJ | Nov 5 vs NAS | Nov 7 vs DET | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon COL · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Cale Makar COL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Martin Necas COL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Nazem Kadri COL · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Gabriel Landeskog COL · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
2 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 3 settled Nathan MacKinnon prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13 | COL @ DAL | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (-148) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 2 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 8 | COL @ CGY | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (-140) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 3 | STL @ COL | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (-102) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 4 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
MacKinnon’s large share of Colorado’s shooting and extensive offensive deployment support another four-shot game.
Counter-Case: Dallas can close MacKinnon’s central shooting lanes and make him move the puck to Lehkonen or Necas. A comfortable Colorado lead can also shorten his late attacking workload, leaving a productive three-shot night short of the requirement.
MacKinnon's established shot volume and top-line workload put four shots within reach against Calgary.
Counter-Case: Calgary can deny Colorado extended offensive-zone possessions and force MacKinnon into passes rather than clean shots. The Winnipeg-to-Calgary turnaround may shorten his workload, and a slow game can leave him at three shots.
MacKinnon's established shot volume and first-line, first-unit role support another high-volume shooting opportunity.
Counter-Case: The line needs at least four shots, and his 4.05-shot projection leaves little room for a quiet game. If St. Louis limits Colorado's time in the offensive zone or MacKinnon shifts toward creating for linemates, he could fall short.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |