By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 18 to Oct 27), Matt Boldy's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 3.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for MIN @ UTA is 3.7 (-244).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ @ MIN | 3.5 (-105) | — | 6 | Over | |
| MIN @ EDM | 3.5 (+108) | 0.0 | 3 | Under | |
| MIN @ CGY | 3.5 (-118) | 0.0 | 7 | Over | |
| MIN @ SEA | 3.5 (-130) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| MIN @ VAN | 3.5 (-113) | 0.0 | 3 | Under | |
| MIN @ UTA | 3.5 (+114) | 0.0 | 2 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.8).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 · vs CBJ | 3.5 | — | 6 | +2.5 |
| Oct 20 · @ EDM | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Oct 22 · @ CGY | 3.5 | 0.0 | 7 | +3.5 |
| Oct 24 · @ SEA | 3.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +1.5 |
| Oct 25 · @ VAN | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Oct 27 · @ UTA | 3.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -1.5 |
Boldy's concentrated shot volume and top-unit deployment provide enough routes to three shots despite a restrictive opponent.
59 SOG · 13 GP · 14.50% SHOT SHARE — Boldy accounts for 14.50% of Minnesota's team shots, giving him a substantial personal share of the attack. That concentration matters against a defense that can reduce the team's total opportunities without distributing the remaining attempts evenly.
22:00 EXPECTED TOI · LINE 1 · PP1 — Boldy's top-line and first power-play assignments connect him to the principal attacking group at even strength and with the extra skater. The expected 22:00 workload gives those separate situations time to produce shooting opportunities rather than requiring an isolated scoring chance.
Utah can deny clean entries and turn Boldy's attempts into blocks or misses. An early Minnesota lead could reduce his late attacking opportunities even if the offense finishes efficiently.
Settlement Rule: CASHES MATT BOLDY FULL GAME SHOTS ON GOAL OVER 2.5 WITH AT LEAST 3 OFFICIAL SHOTS ON GOAL; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Minnesota Wild's 4 primary contributors.
| Minnesota Wild Contributor | Nov 1 @ WAS | Nov 3 @ PHI | Nov 6 vs SJ | Nov 7 vs TB | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Boldy MIN · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Kirill Kaprizov MIN · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Quinn Hughes MIN · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek MIN · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
2 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 3 settled Matt Boldy prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | TB @ MIN | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+100) · Fanatics | 3.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
| Nov 1 | MIN @ WAS | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+100) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 3 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 27 | MIN @ UTA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-140) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 25 | MIN @ VAN | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (-110) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 3 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
Boldy's established shooting volume and shared even-strength and power-play deployment provide enough repeat opportunities to reach four recorded shots.
Counter-Case: Washington can keep attempts outside or block them before they reach the net. A penalty-light game removes some of the extra shooting opportunities, while a comfortable Minnesota lead can reduce late attacking urgency.
Boldy's concentrated shot volume and top-unit deployment provide enough routes to three shots despite a restrictive opponent.
Counter-Case: Utah can deny clean entries and turn Boldy's attempts into blocks or misses. An early Minnesota lead could reduce his late attacking opportunities even if the offense finishes efficiently.
Boldy’s sustained shooting volume and first-unit power-play role give him multiple routes to four shots on goal.
Counter-Case: Vancouver can steer Boldy toward blocked attempts or finishes that miss the net. Heavy legs on the second consecutive night could shorten his attacking shifts, while early goals from teammates could reduce the need for sustained pressure.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |