By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 15 to Oct 25), Matt Boldy's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 3.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for MIN @ VAN is 4.3 (-160).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL @ MIN | 3.5 (+105) | — | 8 | Over | |
| CBJ @ MIN | 3.5 (-105) | 0.0 | 6 | Over | |
| MIN @ EDM | 3.5 (+108) | 0.0 | 3 | Under | |
| MIN @ CGY | 3.5 (-118) | 0.0 | 7 | Over | |
| MIN @ SEA | 3.5 (-130) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| MIN @ VAN | 3.5 (-113) | 0.0 | 3 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 2 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.8 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.8 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 · vs STL | 3.5 | — | 8 | +4.5 |
| Oct 18 · vs CBJ | 3.5 | 0.0 | 6 | +2.5 |
| Oct 20 · @ EDM | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Oct 22 · @ CGY | 3.5 | 0.0 | 7 | +3.5 |
| Oct 24 · @ SEA | 3.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +1.5 |
| Oct 25 · @ VAN | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
Boldy’s sustained shooting volume and first-unit power-play role give him multiple routes to four shots on goal.
51 SOG · 11 GAMES — Boldy has generated 51 shots in 11 games after recording 254 in 76 games last season. The increase is in attempts reaching the goalie, so this wager does not require his finishing percentage to remain elevated.
22.5 PROJECTED MIN · PP1 · 65.0% OPP PK — Boldy occupies a projected first-line wing and first-unit power-play position alongside Minnesota’s primary creators. Vancouver’s 65.0% penalty kill offers a route to extended attacking possessions, allowing repeated attempts rather than relying on isolated rushes.
Vancouver can steer Boldy toward blocked attempts or finishes that miss the net. Heavy legs on the second consecutive night could shorten his attacking shifts, while early goals from teammates could reduce the need for sustained pressure.
Settlement Rule: CASHES MATT BOLDY OVER 3.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH FOUR OR MORE GRADED FULL-GAME SHOTS; NO PUSH ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Minnesota Wild's 4 primary contributors.
| Minnesota Wild Contributor | Nov 1 @ WAS | Nov 3 @ PHI | Nov 6 vs SJ | Nov 7 vs TB | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov MIN · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Matt Boldy MIN · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek MIN · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Quinn Hughes MIN · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
2 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 3 settled Matt Boldy prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | TB @ MIN | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+100) · Fanatics | 3.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
| Nov 1 | MIN @ WAS | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+100) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 3 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 27 | MIN @ UTA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-140) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 25 | MIN @ VAN | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (-110) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 3 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
Boldy's established shooting volume and shared even-strength and power-play deployment provide enough repeat opportunities to reach four recorded shots.
Counter-Case: Washington can keep attempts outside or block them before they reach the net. A penalty-light game removes some of the extra shooting opportunities, while a comfortable Minnesota lead can reduce late attacking urgency.
Boldy's concentrated shot volume and top-unit deployment provide enough routes to three shots despite a restrictive opponent.
Counter-Case: Utah can deny clean entries and turn Boldy's attempts into blocks or misses. An early Minnesota lead could reduce his late attacking opportunities even if the offense finishes efficiently.
Boldy’s sustained shooting volume and first-unit power-play role give him multiple routes to four shots on goal.
Counter-Case: Vancouver can steer Boldy toward blocked attempts or finishes that miss the net. Heavy legs on the second consecutive night could shorten his attacking shifts, while early goals from teammates could reduce the need for sustained pressure.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |