By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Jake Guentzel's shots on goal line at 2.5 for MIN @ TB (Oct 8). WagerBird's modeled fair line for MIN @ TB is 3.0 (-136).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN @ TB | 2.5 (-118) | — | 1 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.3).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 · @ NYR | 2.5 | — | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 3 · vs WAS | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 5 · vs PHI | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 8 · vs MIN | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
Guentzel's shooting history and first-unit power-play usage put three shots within his normal workload.
220 SHOTS · 81 GAMES · 39 GAMES WITH 3+ — Guentzel took 220 shots in 81 games last season and reached three in 39 games. Projected for 19–21 minutes, he has several shifts in which to clear the shot threshold.
10 SHOTS · 3 GAMES · MIN 29.39 SA/G — He has 10 shots through three games and projects both with Cirelli and Hagel and on the first power play. Minnesota's approximately 29.39 shots allowed per game last season supports continued Tampa Bay shooting opportunities.
Guentzel can facilitate Hagel's shooting rather than take the attempts himself. Minnesota may also block his power-play looks before they become shots on goal.
Settlement Rule: CASHES JAKE GUENTZEL OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST THREE SHOTS; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Tampa Bay Lightning's 5 primary contributors.
| Tampa Bay Lightning Contributor | Oct 31 @ NAS | Nov 3 vs DET | Nov 5 vs CHI | Nov 7 @ MIN | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov TB · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Brandon Hagel TB · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jake Guentzel TB · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Brayden Point TB · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| John Carlson TB · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
2 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Jake Guentzel prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 | SEA @ TB | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-115) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 8 | MIN @ TB | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+110) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Guentzel's sustained wing minutes and top-unit deployment support three shots against Seattle's elevated shot allowance.
Counter-Case: Hagel can take the finishing chances while Guentzel serves as a passer or screen. Few power plays can remove the extra possessions that would otherwise help him progress from two shots to three.
Guentzel's shooting history and first-unit power-play usage put three shots within his normal workload.
Counter-Case: Guentzel can facilitate Hagel's shooting rather than take the attempts himself. Minnesota may also block his power-play looks before they become shots on goal.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |