By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Tyrese Maxey's assists line at 4.5 for PHI @ NYK (Oct 20). WagerBird's modeled fair line for PHI @ NYK is 5.7 (-206).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ NYK | 4.5 (-116) | — | 5 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Insufficient 6-game box-score history to measure book step-lag.
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 · @ NYK | 4.5 | — | 5 | +0.5 |
Maxey can retain enough lead-guard passing work to reach five assists even after sharing creation with Philadelphia’s new starters.
6.6 AST · 38.0 MIN · 70 GAMES — Maxey averaged 6.6 assists in 38.0 minutes across 70 games last season. His starting role remains intact, so reaching five does not require preserving every possession he previously controlled. Sharing creation can reduce his total touches without eliminating the drive-and-pass possessions that generate assists.
6 AST · 30 MIN — Maxey produced six assists in 30 minutes in the preseason finale. That outing shows a route to the required count within a shorter shift, although one exhibition does not establish his regular-season rate. Brown and James provide additional scoring options when Maxey makes the first productive pass.
James can take the initiating possessions and leave Maxey attacking as the finishing guard. Maxey can also score on his own drives while teammates miss the shots that would turn his passes into assists. A shortened fourth quarter would remove the late possessions that often decide this count.
Settlement Rule: CASHES TYRESE MAXEY FULL GAME ASSISTS OVER 4.5 WITH AT LEAST FIVE ASSISTS; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Philadelphia 76ers's 5 primary contributors.
| Philadelphia 76ers Contributor | Oct 31 @ CHA | Nov 2 vs CHI | Nov 4 @ DET | Nov 6 @ CLE | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Embiid PHI · Points | — | 21.5 | 18.5 | 21.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jaylen Brown PHI · Points | 23.5 | 21.5 | 19.5 | 20.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Tyrese Maxey PHI · Points | 27.5 | 25.5 | 24.5 | 25.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| LeBron James PHI · Points | 19.5 | 17.5 | 15.5 | 16.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| VJ Edgecombe PHI · Points | 16.5 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
4 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 5 settled Tyrese Maxey prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | PHI @ CLE | Points | Over 24.5 (-115) · Fanatics | 25.5 | 17 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Nov 4 | PHI @ DET | Points | Over 23.5 (-108) · FanDuel | 24.5 | 19 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 30 | NYK @ PHI | Points | Over 22.5 (-116) · ProphetX | 25.5 | 27 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 22 | CLE @ PHI | Points | Over 22.5 (-120) · BetMGM | 23.5 | 32 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 20 | PHI @ NYK | Assists | Over 4.5 (-116) · ProphetX | 4.5 | 5 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Maxey's sustained minutes, shot volume and free-throw opportunities support enough scoring to clear this threshold without exceptional shooting.
Counter-Case: Early defensive pressure can move the ball toward the other primary scorers and turn his possessions into assists. A slow opening half or an abbreviated fourth-quarter stint can leave him short even without poor shooting.
Maxey's sustained lead-guard workload supports enough scoring volume even after allowing for a healthier and more crowded starting lineup.
Counter-Case: Detroit can slow the possession count and make Maxey finish against a set defense. James, Brown and Embiid can take a larger share of the offense, leaving too few attempts for this selection within Philadelphia's restrained scoring outlook.
Maxey's sustained shooting volume gives him a scoring path that does not require another teammate to miss the game.
Counter-Case: New York can pressure Maxey into releasing the ball before he reaches a scoring position. More post possessions for Embiid and heavier shot demand from Brown can reduce his attempts even during a long shift. A cold perimeter night would make those lost opportunities harder to replace.
Maxey can retain enough finishing volume alongside the additional creators to reach his scoring threshold.
Counter-Case: Brown and Embiid can absorb finishing possessions while Maxey plays a normal workload. Early fouls or a one-sided fourth quarter would further reduce his scoring chances.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |