By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 2 active games (Oct 20 to Oct 22), sportsbooks adjusted Tyrese Maxey's posted points line upward in 1 of 1 game-over-game steps from 20.5 to 23.5 (+3.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for CLE @ PHI is 25.5 (-171).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ NYK | 20.5 (-115) | — | 28 | Over | |
| CLE @ PHI | 23.5 (-105) | +3.0 | 32 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 3 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +9.5 vs. +3.0 book step adjustment (+6.5 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 · @ NYK | 20.5 | — | 28 | +7.5 |
| Oct 22 · vs CLE | 23.5 | +3.0 | 32 | +8.5 |
Maxey can retain enough finishing volume alongside the additional creators to reach his scoring threshold.
28 PTS · 19 FGA · 40 MIN — Maxey scored 28 points on 19 field-goal attempts in 40 minutes in the opener. That workload shows he can remain a major scoring outlet while the new starting group shares the ball.
37 PROJECTED MIN · 25.5 PROJECTED PTS — The anticipated adjustment is more off-ball work for Maxey, not his removal from the attack. A projected 37-minute workload preserves finishing opportunities while allowing for fewer attempts than his prior-season average.
Brown and Embiid can absorb finishing possessions while Maxey plays a normal workload. Early fouls or a one-sided fourth quarter would further reduce his scoring chances.
Settlement Rule: CASHES TYRESE MAXEY OVER 22.5 POINTS WITH AT LEAST 23 POINTS; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Philadelphia 76ers's 5 primary contributors.
| Philadelphia 76ers Contributor | Oct 31 @ CHA | Nov 2 vs CHI | Nov 4 @ DET | Nov 6 @ CLE | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey PHI · Points | 27.5 | 25.5 | 24.5 | 25.5 | +3.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Joel Embiid PHI · Points | — | 21.5 | 18.5 | 21.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jaylen Brown PHI · Points | 23.5 | 21.5 | 19.5 | 20.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| LeBron James PHI · Points | 19.5 | 17.5 | 15.5 | 16.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| VJ Edgecombe PHI · Points | 16.5 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
4 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 4 settled Tyrese Maxey prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | PHI @ CLE | Points | Over 24.5 (-115) · Fanatics | 25.5 | 17 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Nov 4 | PHI @ DET | Points | Over 23.5 (-108) · FanDuel | 24.5 | 19 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 30 | NYK @ PHI | Points | Over 22.5 (-116) · ProphetX | 25.5 | 27 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 22 | CLE @ PHI | Points | Over 22.5 (-120) · BetMGM | 23.5 | 32 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Maxey's sustained minutes, shot volume and free-throw opportunities support enough scoring to clear this threshold without exceptional shooting.
Counter-Case: Early defensive pressure can move the ball toward the other primary scorers and turn his possessions into assists. A slow opening half or an abbreviated fourth-quarter stint can leave him short even without poor shooting.
Maxey's sustained lead-guard workload supports enough scoring volume even after allowing for a healthier and more crowded starting lineup.
Counter-Case: Detroit can slow the possession count and make Maxey finish against a set defense. James, Brown and Embiid can take a larger share of the offense, leaving too few attempts for this selection within Philadelphia's restrained scoring outlook.
Maxey's sustained shooting volume gives him a scoring path that does not require another teammate to miss the game.
Counter-Case: New York can pressure Maxey into releasing the ball before he reaches a scoring position. More post possessions for Embiid and heavier shot demand from Brown can reduce his attempts even during a long shift. A cold perimeter night would make those lost opportunities harder to replace.
Maxey can retain enough finishing volume alongside the additional creators to reach his scoring threshold.
Counter-Case: Brown and Embiid can absorb finishing possessions while Maxey plays a normal workload. Early fouls or a one-sided fourth quarter would further reduce his scoring chances.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |