By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 25 to Nov 4), sportsbooks adjusted Tyrese Maxey's posted points line downward in 3 of 5 game-over-game steps from 26.5 to 24.5 (-2.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for PHI @ DET is 26.0 (-155).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET @ PHI | 26.5 (-105) | — | 29 | Over | |
| PHI @ IND | 24.5 (+104) | -2.0 | 27 | Over | |
| NYK @ PHI | 25.5 (-102) | +1.0 | 27 | Over | |
| PHI @ CHA | 27.5 (+100) | +2.0 | 38 | Over | |
| CHI @ PHI | 25.5 (-106) | -2.0 | 26 | Over | |
| PHI @ DET | 24.5 (+104) | -1.0 | 19 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.2 vs. -2.0 book step adjustment (+3.2 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 · vs DET | 26.5 | — | 29 | +2.5 |
| Oct 28 · @ IND | 24.5 | -2.0 | 27 | +2.5 |
| Oct 30 · vs NYK | 25.5 | +1.0 | 27 | +1.5 |
| Oct 31 · @ CHA | 27.5 | +2.0 | 38 | +10.5 |
| Nov 2 · vs CHI | 25.5 | -2.0 | 26 | +0.5 |
| Nov 4 · @ DET | 24.5 | -1.0 | 19 | -5.5 |
Maxey's sustained lead-guard workload supports enough scoring volume even after allowing for a healthier and more crowded starting lineup.
37.7 MIN · 30.6% USG · 21.1 FGA — Maxey entered the Chicago game averaging 37.7 minutes with 30.6% usage and 21.1 field-goal attempts. That combination supplies scoring opportunities through both sustained playing time and a large share of possessions, rather than requiring exceptional shooting on a small workload. [Minutes and usage](https://thefantasyiq.com/nba/team/phi) · [Shot volume](https://craftednba.com/teams/philadelphia)
26 PTS · 36 MIN — Maxey scored 26 points in 36 minutes with James, Brown, Embiid and Edgecombe in the starting group against Chicago. His scoring role remained productive alongside the other creators, supporting a forecast that does not rely entirely on teammates being absent. [Box score](https://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore/_/gameId/401909912) · [Starting group](https://www.espn.com/nba/recap/_/gameId/401909912)
Detroit can slow the possession count and make Maxey finish against a set defense. James, Brown and Embiid can take a larger share of the offense, leaving too few attempts for this selection within Philadelphia's restrained scoring outlook.
Settlement Rule: CASHES WITH TYRESE MAXEY SCORING 24 POINTS OR MORE; NO STATISTICAL PUSH AT 23.5.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Philadelphia 76ers's 5 primary contributors.
| Philadelphia 76ers Contributor | Oct 31 @ CHA | Nov 2 vs CHI | Nov 4 @ DET | Nov 6 @ CLE | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey PHI · Points | 27.5 | 25.5 | 24.5 | 25.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Jaylen Brown PHI · Points | 23.5 | 21.5 | 19.5 | 20.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Joel Embiid PHI · Points | — | 21.5 | 18.5 | 21.5 | -3.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| LeBron James PHI · Points | 19.5 | 17.5 | 15.5 | 16.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| VJ Edgecombe PHI · Points | 16.5 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
4 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 4 settled Tyrese Maxey prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | PHI @ CLE | Points | Over 24.5 (-115) · Fanatics | 25.5 | 17 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Nov 4 | PHI @ DET | Points | Over 23.5 (-108) · FanDuel | 24.5 | 19 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 30 | NYK @ PHI | Points | Over 22.5 (-116) · ProphetX | 25.5 | 27 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 22 | CLE @ PHI | Points | Over 22.5 (-120) · BetMGM | 23.5 | 32 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Maxey's sustained minutes, shot volume and free-throw opportunities support enough scoring to clear this threshold without exceptional shooting.
Counter-Case: Early defensive pressure can move the ball toward the other primary scorers and turn his possessions into assists. A slow opening half or an abbreviated fourth-quarter stint can leave him short even without poor shooting.
Maxey's sustained lead-guard workload supports enough scoring volume even after allowing for a healthier and more crowded starting lineup.
Counter-Case: Detroit can slow the possession count and make Maxey finish against a set defense. James, Brown and Embiid can take a larger share of the offense, leaving too few attempts for this selection within Philadelphia's restrained scoring outlook.
Maxey's sustained shooting volume gives him a scoring path that does not require another teammate to miss the game.
Counter-Case: New York can pressure Maxey into releasing the ball before he reaches a scoring position. More post possessions for Embiid and heavier shot demand from Brown can reduce his attempts even during a long shift. A cold perimeter night would make those lost opportunities harder to replace.
Maxey can retain enough finishing volume alongside the additional creators to reach his scoring threshold.
Counter-Case: Brown and Embiid can absorb finishing possessions while Maxey plays a normal workload. Early fouls or a one-sided fourth quarter would further reduce his scoring chances.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |