By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 20 to Oct 30), sportsbooks adjusted Tyrese Maxey's posted points line upward in 4 of 5 game-over-game steps from 20.5 to 25.5 (+5.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for NYK @ PHI is 26.5 (-200).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ NYK | 20.5 (-115) | — | 28 | Over | |
| CLE @ PHI | 23.5 (-105) | +3.0 | 32 | Over | |
| MIL @ PHI | 25.5 (+100) | +2.0 | 26 | Over | |
| DET @ PHI | 26.5 (-105) | +1.0 | 29 | Over | |
| PHI @ IND | 24.5 (+104) | -2.0 | 27 | Over | |
| NYK @ PHI | 25.5 (-102) | +1.0 | 27 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +7.7 vs. +5.0 book step adjustment (+2.7 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 · @ NYK | 20.5 | — | 28 | +7.5 |
| Oct 22 · vs CLE | 23.5 | +3.0 | 32 | +8.5 |
| Oct 24 · vs MIL | 25.5 | +2.0 | 26 | +0.5 |
| Oct 25 · vs DET | 26.5 | +1.0 | 29 | +2.5 |
| Oct 28 · @ IND | 24.5 | -2.0 | 27 | +2.5 |
| Oct 30 · vs NYK | 25.5 | +1.0 | 27 | +1.5 |
Maxey's sustained shooting volume gives him a scoring path that does not require another teammate to miss the game.
28.4 PPG · 21.2 FGA · 5 GAMES — Maxey averaged 28.4 points on 21.2 shots across the opening five games. That volume supplies repeated scoring chances without requiring him to take possessions away from an injured teammate.
37.5 MPG · 7.4 3PA — Maxey averaged approximately 37.5 minutes and 7.4 three-point attempts through those games. The extended workload creates time to recover from a quiet stretch, while perimeter attempts provide another scoring route when the paint becomes crowded.
New York can pressure Maxey into releasing the ball before he reaches a scoring position. More post possessions for Embiid and heavier shot demand from Brown can reduce his attempts even during a long shift. A cold perimeter night would make those lost opportunities harder to replace.
Settlement Rule: CASHES TYRESE MAXEY OVER 22.5 POINTS WITH 23 OR MORE POINTS; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Philadelphia 76ers's 4 primary contributors.
| Philadelphia 76ers Contributor | Oct 31 @ CHA | Nov 2 vs CHI | Nov 4 @ DET | Nov 6 @ CLE | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey PHI · Points | 27.5 | 25.5 | 24.5 | 25.5 | +3.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Joel Embiid PHI · Points | — | 21.5 | 18.5 | 21.5 | +2.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| LeBron James PHI · Points | 19.5 | 17.5 | 15.5 | 16.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| VJ Edgecombe PHI · Points | 16.5 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ |
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
4 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 4 settled Tyrese Maxey prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | PHI @ CLE | Points | Over 24.5 (-115) · Fanatics | 25.5 | 17 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Nov 4 | PHI @ DET | Points | Over 23.5 (-108) · FanDuel | 24.5 | 19 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 30 | NYK @ PHI | Points | Over 22.5 (-116) · ProphetX | 25.5 | 27 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 22 | CLE @ PHI | Points | Over 22.5 (-120) · BetMGM | 23.5 | 32 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Maxey's sustained minutes, shot volume and free-throw opportunities support enough scoring to clear this threshold without exceptional shooting.
Counter-Case: Early defensive pressure can move the ball toward the other primary scorers and turn his possessions into assists. A slow opening half or an abbreviated fourth-quarter stint can leave him short even without poor shooting.
Maxey's sustained lead-guard workload supports enough scoring volume even after allowing for a healthier and more crowded starting lineup.
Counter-Case: Detroit can slow the possession count and make Maxey finish against a set defense. James, Brown and Embiid can take a larger share of the offense, leaving too few attempts for this selection within Philadelphia's restrained scoring outlook.
Maxey's sustained shooting volume gives him a scoring path that does not require another teammate to miss the game.
Counter-Case: New York can pressure Maxey into releasing the ball before he reaches a scoring position. More post possessions for Embiid and heavier shot demand from Brown can reduce his attempts even during a long shift. A cold perimeter night would make those lost opportunities harder to replace.
Maxey can retain enough finishing volume alongside the additional creators to reach his scoring threshold.
Counter-Case: Brown and Embiid can absorb finishing possessions while Maxey plays a normal workload. Early fouls or a one-sided fourth quarter would further reduce his scoring chances.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |