By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted 3-pointers made total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 31 to Nov 9), Stephon Castle's posted 3-pointers made line has held net flat at 1.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for SAS @ PHX is 2.2 (-182).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN @ SAS | 1.5 (+102) | — | 0 | Under | |
| UTA @ SAS | 1.5 (+106) | 0.0 | 2 | Over | |
| DAL @ SAS | 1.5 (+105) | 0.0 | 2 | Over | |
| SAS @ SAC | 1.5 (-133) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| SAS @ POR | 1.5 (-134) | 0.0 | 2 | Over | |
| SAS @ PHX | 1.5 (+100) | 0.0 | — | Fair 2.2 |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (-0.1).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 · vs MIN | 1.5 | — | 0 | -1.5 |
| Nov 2 · vs UTA | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | +0.5 |
| Nov 4 · vs DAL | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | +0.5 |
| Nov 6 · @ SAC | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -0.5 |
| Nov 7 · @ POR | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | +0.5 |
| Nov 9 · @ PHX | 1.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
Castle's established perimeter attempt load gives him a practical route to two made threes without exceptional accuracy.
7.4 3PA · 2.4 3PM · 8 GAMES — Castle's eight-game row contains 7.4 three-point attempts and 2.4 makes per game. That attempt base creates repeated chances to reach the second make even when his conversion rate is ordinary.
31 MIN · 2.2 PROJECTED 3PM — The 31-minute forecast preserves a substantial starting-guard stint without requiring extra time from an unavailable teammate. The 2.2-make projection sits below his early average, allowing for fewer opportunities when the other creators control possessions.
Aggressive closeouts can turn the guard's perimeter touches into drives and passes. A concentrated scoring night from the primary creators or a shortened closing stint can leave too few attempts for a second make.
Settlement Rule: CASHES WITH AT LEAST 2 MADE THREES · NO PUSH AT 1.5.
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across San Antonio Spurs's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
-13.5 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 105.0 vs. 118.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94.0 | 89.5% | 105.0 | 118.5 (-105) | -13.5 |
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Victor Wembanyama SAS · Prev 26.5 (+1.0) | 27.5 | 30.9% | 23.2%(-7.7% vs Hist) | +3.0 | Usage Transfer | |
#2 Dylan Harper SAS · Prev 16.5 (0.0) | 16.5 | 16.5% | 13.9%(-2.6% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Steady Share | |
#3 Stephon Castle SAS · Prev 16.5 (-1.0) | 15.5 | 12.2% | 13.1%(+0.9% vs Hist) | -1.0 | Usage Transfer | |
#4 De'Aaron Fox SAS · Prev 14.5 (-1.0) | 13.5 | 11.5% | 11.4%(-0.1% vs Hist) | -2.0 | Usage Transfer | |
#5 Devin Vassell SAS · Prev 11.5 (0.0) | 11.5 | 11.8% | 9.7%(-2.1% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share | |
#6 Keldon Johnson SAS · Prev 8.5 (+1.0) | 9.5 | 6.6% | 8.0%(+1.4% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Usage Transfer |
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Stephon Castle prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | SAS @ PHX | 3-Pointers Made | Over 1.5 (-105) · Fanatics | 1.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 31 | MIN @ SAS | 3-Pointers Made | Over 1.5 (-120) · Fanatics | 1.5 | 0 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Castle's expanded perimeter opportunity gives him room to make two threes even with shooting accuracy close to his longer-term baseline.
Counter-Case: Aggressive closeouts can turn Castle's perimeter catches into drives and passes, especially when Fox and Harper control the initial action. His latest outing produced only one make on four attempts despite extended playing time, and an early comfortable lead could remove his final shooting opportunities.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 8 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 87 | 12 | 41 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 10 CT) | 87 | 12 | 41 |