By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted rebounds total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 30 to Nov 9), sportsbooks adjusted Miles Bridges's posted rebounds line upward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 5.5 to 6.5 (+1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for SAS @ PHX is 7.3 (-165).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN @ PHX | 5.5 (-128) | — | 10 | Over | |
| PHX @ GSW | 6.5 (+115) | +1.0 | 6 | Under | |
| POR @ PHX | 5.5 (-142) | -1.0 | 7 | Over | |
| ORL @ PHX | 6.5 (+105) | +1.0 | 13 | Over | |
| HOU @ PHX | 6.5 (+108) | 0.0 | 10 | Over | |
| SAS @ PHX | 6.5 (+110) | 0.0 | — | Fair 7.3 |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +3.7 vs. +1.0 book step adjustment (+2.7 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 · vs DEN | 5.5 | — | 10 | +4.5 |
| Nov 2 · @ GSW | 6.5 | +1.0 | 6 | -0.5 |
| Nov 4 · vs POR | 5.5 | -1.0 | 7 | +1.5 |
| Nov 5 · vs ORL | 6.5 | +1.0 | 13 | +6.5 |
| Nov 7 · vs HOU | 6.5 | 0.0 | 10 | +3.5 |
| Nov 9 · vs SAS | 6.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
Bridges' sustained involvement on the glass supports seven rebounds in his usual substantial workload.
7.9 RPG · 13.8% TRB — Bridges' seven-game profile shows 7.9 rebounds per game and a 13.8% total-rebound rate. His involvement is large enough that the target does not require an isolated run of fortunate bounces.
13 AND 10 REB · 33 MIN FORECAST — Bridges collected thirteen rebounds on November 5 and ten on November 7. The 33-minute forecast maintains his substantial role while the 7.3-rebound estimate deliberately steps back from those double-digit results.
The centers can claim the available interior rebounds before Bridges arrives. Efficient opposing shooting can leave too few defensive misses, especially if he spends more possessions contesting outside the lane.
Settlement Rule: CASHES WITH AT LEAST 7 REBOUNDS · NO PUSH AT 6.5.
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Phoenix Suns's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
-17.9 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 91.6 vs. 109.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77.5 | 84.6% | 91.6 | 109.5 (+100) | -17.9 |
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Devin Booker PHX · Prev 23.5 (+1.0) | 24.5 | 24.2% | 22.4%(-1.8% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Usage Transfer | |
#2 Jalen Green PHX · Prev 15.5 (0.0) | 15.5 | 13.7% | 14.2%(+0.5% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share | |
#3 Miles Bridges PHX · Prev 15.5 (-1.0) | 14.5 | 19.7% | 13.2%(-6.5% vs Hist) | -1.0 | Usage Transfer | |
#4 Dillon Brooks PHX · Prev 15.5 (-1.0) | 14.5 | 19.4% | 13.2%(-6.2% vs Hist) | -2.0 | Usage Transfer | |
#5 Collin Gillespie PHX · Prev 8.5 (0.0) | 8.5 | 7.6% | 7.8%(+0.2% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share |
0 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Miles Bridges prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | SAS @ PHX | Rebounds | Over 6.5 (+110) · Fanatics | 6.5 | — | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 8 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 87 | 12 | 41 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 10 CT) | 87 | 12 | 41 |