NBA Player Prop & CLV DossierTeam: SASPosted Line Trajectory: Trending Down (-1.0 over 6 games)

De'Aaron Fox (NBA) Posted Points Line Trajectory & CLV Record

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)

NBA Player Props CLV Counts
73 Beat · 11 Tied · 36 Lost
De'Aaron Fox Releases: 1 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost

Sportsbook Posted Points Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)

Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game.

Posted Book Line
Across the last 6 active games (Oct 28 to Nov 7), sportsbooks adjusted De'Aaron Fox's posted points line downward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 15.5 to 14.5 (-1.0).16.515.915.314.714.113.515.515.515.514.515.514.5Oct 28SAS @ UTAOct 31MIN @ SASNov 2UTA @ SASNov 4DAL @ SASNov 6SAS @ SACNov 7SAS @ POR

Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 28 to Nov 7), sportsbooks adjusted De'Aaron Fox's posted points line downward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 15.5 to 14.5 (-1.0).

6-Game Posted Points Ledger (De'Aaron Fox)

America/Chicago (CT)
Date (CT)MatchupPosted LineMoveActualResult
SAS @ UTA15.5 (-111)—14Under
MIN @ SAS15.5 (-109)0.022Over
UTA @ SAS15.5 (-105)0.012Under
DAL @ SAS14.5 (-120)-1.010Under
SAS @ SAC15.5 (+100)+1.09Under
SAS @ POR14.5 (-108)-1.0—Upcoming

Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.

Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Ahead of Production6-Game Window

De'Aaron Fox Points Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)

Books adjusted -1.0 vs. -2.1 actual output delta (-1.1 Book Over-Adjustment).

Unpriced Book Step-Lag-1.1Max Single-Game Book Step: -1.0
Window Open Line
15.5
Current Posted Line
14.5
Book Cumulative Step
-1.0
Actual Window Avg
13.4
Actual Output Delta
-2.1
Modeled Fair Value
—
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
De'Aaron Fox Sticky Book Anchoring Meter: 6-game Posted Points Line vs Actual Box-Score Output26614Oct 28@ UTA22Oct 31vs MIN12Nov 2vs UTA10Nov 4vs DAL9Nov 6@ SACNov 7@ POR
Game (CT)Posted LineBook StepActualBox Surplus
Oct 28 · @ UTA15.5—14-1.5
Oct 31 · vs MIN15.50.022+6.5
Nov 2 · vs UTA15.50.012-3.5
Nov 4 · vs DAL14.5-1.010-4.5
Nov 6 · @ SAC15.5+1.09-6.5
Nov 7 · @ POR14.5-1.0——
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up

De'Aaron Fox Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 1 Lost)

0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled De'Aaron Fox prop write-up.

De'Aaron Fox CLV Counts
0 Beat · 0 Tied · 1 Lost
1 Settled CLV Receipt
Date (CT)MatchupMarketRelease QuoteClosing LineActualCLV GradeWrite-Up
Nov 4DAL @ SASPointsOver 14.5 (-125) · Fanatics14.510LostRead Write-Up →

Archived Settled De'Aaron Fox Prop Write-Ups

Nov 4 CT · DAL @ SAS · PointsFull Write-Up →

A competitive starter workload gives Fox a reasonable path beyond a scoring requirement below both his current and prior-season averages.

Counter-Case: The other San Antonio creators can leave Fox distributing rather than finishing possessions. Another comfortable win can take away his closing minutes. A genuinely low-scoring performance consistent with the first-half scoring read would also make this scoring target harder to reach.

De'Aaron Fox WagerBird Prop Release & CLV Archive

Date (CT)MatchupMarketReleaseCloseActualCLV Grade
Nov 4DAL @ SASPointsOver 14.514.510Lost
Oct 31MIN @ SASAssistsOver 5.55.57Beat

NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)

WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)
Prop Lane WindowBeat CloseTied CloseLost Close
Season to date (from Sep 23 CT)731136
Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT)731136