By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted 3-pointers made total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 20 to Oct 31), Stephon Castle's posted 3-pointers made line has held net flat at 1.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for MIN @ SAS is 2.4 (-213).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC @ SAS | 1.5 (+140) | — | 5 | Over | |
| HOU @ SAS | 1.5 (+120) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| SAS @ DAL | 1.5 (+106) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| SAC @ SAS | 1.5 (-105) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| SAS @ UTA | 1.5 (-150) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| MIN @ SAS | 1.5 (+102) | 0.0 | 0 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.0 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.0 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 · vs OKC | 1.5 | — | 5 | +3.5 |
| Oct 23 · vs HOU | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +1.5 |
| Oct 24 · @ DAL | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +1.5 |
| Oct 27 · vs SAC | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +1.5 |
| Oct 28 · @ UTA | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -0.5 |
| Oct 31 · vs MIN | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.5 |
Castle's expanded perimeter opportunity gives him room to make two threes even with shooting accuracy close to his longer-term baseline.
9.3 3PA · FIRST 4 GAMES — Castle attempted 9.3 threes per game through his first four appearances, including eight attempts against Sacramento. That volume creates multiple conversion opportunities without requiring him to dominate every possession.
33.2% PRIOR SEASON · 31 PROJECTED MIN — Castle shot 33.2 percent from three in the prior season, well below his opening shooting clip this season. A regular rotation stint with the broader perimeter role gives him a route to two makes without preserving the early hot percentage.
Aggressive closeouts can turn Castle's perimeter catches into drives and passes, especially when Fox and Harper control the initial action. His latest outing produced only one make on four attempts despite extended playing time, and an early comfortable lead could remove his final shooting opportunities.
Settlement Rule: CASHES WITH AT LEAST 2 OFFICIAL MADE THREES; 0 OR 1 LOSES, WITH NO PUSH AT 1.5.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across San Antonio Spurs's 5 primary contributors.
| San Antonio Spurs Contributor | Nov 2 vs UTA | Nov 4 vs DAL | Nov 6 @ SAC | Nov 7 @ POR | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama SAS · Points | 26.5 | 26.5 | 28.5 | 26.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Stephon Castle SAS · Points | 16.5 | 15.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| De'Aaron Fox SAS · Points | 15.5 | 14.5 | 15.5 | 14.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Dylan Harper SAS · Points | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Devin Vassell SAS · Points | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Stephon Castle prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | MIN @ SAS | 3-Pointers Made | Over 1.5 (-120) · Fanatics | 1.5 | 0 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Castle's expanded perimeter opportunity gives him room to make two threes even with shooting accuracy close to his longer-term baseline.
Counter-Case: Aggressive closeouts can turn Castle's perimeter catches into drives and passes, especially when Fox and Harper control the initial action. His latest outing produced only one make on four attempts despite extended playing time, and an early comfortable lead could remove his final shooting opportunities.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |