By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 31 to Nov 9), sportsbooks adjusted Dylan Harper's posted points line upward in 1 of 5 game-over-game steps from 15.5 to 16.5 (+1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for SAS @ PHX is 18.3 (-157).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN @ SAS | 15.5 (-115) | — | 25 | Over | |
| UTA @ SAS | 16.5 (-105) | +1.0 | 17 | Over | |
| DAL @ SAS | 16.5 (-113) | 0.0 | 21 | Over | |
| SAS @ SAC | 16.5 (-125) | 0.0 | 19 | Over | |
| SAS @ POR | 16.5 (-105) | 0.0 | 13 | Under | |
| SAS @ PHX | 16.5 (-102) | 0.0 | — | Fair 18.3 |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +3.5 vs. +1.0 book step adjustment (+2.5 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 · vs MIN | 15.5 | — | 25 | +9.5 |
| Nov 2 · vs UTA | 16.5 | +1.0 | 17 | +0.5 |
| Nov 4 · vs DAL | 16.5 | 0.0 | 21 | +4.5 |
| Nov 6 · @ SAC | 16.5 | 0.0 | 19 | +2.5 |
| Nov 7 · @ POR | 16.5 | 0.0 | 13 | -3.5 |
| Nov 9 · @ PHX | 16.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
Harper's regular minutes and shot volume support a scoring total above the posted threshold without an expanded role.
18.6 PPG · 14.5 FGA — Harper's eight-game row contains 18.6 points on 14.5 field-goal attempts per game. That workload provides a scoring foundation independent of an unusually efficient shooting night.
32.9 MPG · 33 MIN FORECAST — The broader snapshot places Harper at 32.9 minutes per game. A 33-minute forecast restores that normal workload while keeping his scoring estimate slightly below his early average.
Harper can spend more possessions initiating offense while teammates take the shots. Crowded driving lanes can force less comfortable jumpers, and an early separation can remove his expected closing minutes.
Settlement Rule: CASHES WITH AT LEAST 17 POINTS · NO PUSH AT 16.5.
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across San Antonio Spurs's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
-13.5 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 105.0 vs. 118.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94.0 | 89.5% | 105.0 | 118.5 (-105) | -13.5 |
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Victor Wembanyama SAS · Prev 26.5 (+1.0) | 27.5 | 30.9% | 23.2%(-7.7% vs Hist) | +3.0 | Usage Transfer | |
#2 Dylan Harper SAS · Prev 16.5 (0.0) | 16.5 | 16.5% | 13.9%(-2.6% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Steady Share | |
#3 Stephon Castle SAS · Prev 16.5 (-1.0) | 15.5 | 12.2% | 13.1%(+0.9% vs Hist) | -1.0 | Usage Transfer | |
#4 De'Aaron Fox SAS · Prev 14.5 (-1.0) | 13.5 | 11.5% | 11.4%(-0.1% vs Hist) | -2.0 | Usage Transfer | |
#5 Devin Vassell SAS · Prev 11.5 (0.0) | 11.5 | 11.8% | 9.7%(-2.1% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share | |
#6 Keldon Johnson SAS · Prev 8.5 (+1.0) | 9.5 | 6.6% | 8.0%(+1.4% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Usage Transfer |
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Dylan Harper prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | SAS @ PHX | Points | Over 16.5 (-104) · DraftKings | 16.5 | — | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 8 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 87 | 12 | 41 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 10 CT) | 87 | 12 | 41 |