By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 30 to Nov 8), Jayson Tatum's posted assists line has held net flat at 6.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for BOS @ MIL is 7.9 (-226).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI @ BOS | 6.5 (-130) | — | 7 | Over | |
| BOS @ ORL | 6.5 (+112) | 0.0 | 7 | Over | |
| BOS @ HOU | 6.5 (+102) | 0.0 | 9 | Over | |
| MIL @ BOS | 7.5 (+114) | +1.0 | — | — | |
| BOS @ CHA | 6.5 (+114) | -1.0 | 9 | Over | |
| BOS @ MIL | 6.5 (-116) | 0.0 | — | Fair 7.9 |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 6 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.5 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.5 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 · vs CHI | 6.5 | — | 7 | +0.5 |
| Nov 1 · @ ORL | 6.5 | 0.0 | 7 | +0.5 |
| Nov 2 · @ HOU | 6.5 | 0.0 | 9 | +2.5 |
| Nov 4 · vs MIL | 7.5 | +1.0 | — | — |
| Nov 6 · @ CHA | 6.5 | -1.0 | 9 | +2.5 |
| Nov 8 · @ MIL | 6.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
Tatum’s season assist average and recent nine-assist outing support another high-creation game.
8.0 AST AVG · 33 EXPECTED MIN — Tatum has averaged 8.0 assists through eight games, and the projection puts him at 7.9 assists on 33 expected minutes. That steady role gives him enough possessions to create multiple scoring chances for teammates.
9 AST NOV 6 — He recorded nine assists in the latest game against Charlotte. His ability to facilitate while also drawing defensive attention can generate open shots around the floor.
Tatum’s recent workload has varied, including a rest absence in the prior meeting with Milwaukee. Boston can also score through other creators, and missed teammate shots do not become assists.
Settlement Rule: CASHES JAYSON TATUM OVER 6.5 ASSISTS. · NO PUSH ON THE HALF
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Boston Celtics's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
-25.5 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 92.0 vs. 117.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80.5 | 87.5% | 92.0 | 117.5 (-115) | -25.5 |
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Jayson Tatum BOS · Prev 26.5 (0.0) | 26.5 | 31.2% | 22.6%(-8.6% vs Hist) | -2.0 | Steady Share | |
#2 Paul George BOS · Prev 17.5 (0.0) | 17.5 | 18.7% | 14.9%(-3.8% vs Hist) | -3.0 | Steady Share | |
#3 Derrick White BOS · Prev 13.5 (0.0) | 13.5 | 15.4% | 11.5%(-3.9% vs Hist) | -2.0 | Steady Share | |
#4 Payton Pritchard BOS · Prev 13.5 (0.0) | 13.5 | 12.0% | 11.5%(-0.5% vs Hist) | -2.0 | Steady Share | |
#5 Neemias Queta BOS · Prev 9.5 (0.0) | 9.5 | 10.2% | 8.1%(-2.1% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Steady Share |
1 active Jayson Tatum prop write-up tracked awaiting closing line settlement.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | BOS @ MIL | Assists | Over 6.5 (-118) · ProphetX | 6.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 7 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 9 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |