01 · Fundamental Driver
Season assists
5.1 AST AVG · 30.0 MIN AVG — White averages 5.1 assists over nine games and plays 30 minutes per game. His guard role brings regular initiation and secondary creation opportunities.
Posted Line Trajectory: Trending Down (-1.0 over 6 games)Free Dossier Release
Derrick White Assists Prop (Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks, ): Fair Line 5.2 (-146) vs 4.5 Market
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
ProphetX: Over 4.5 (-112)Modeled Edge: +16.5% EV · Fair Value 5.2 (-146)
- Pick & Release Line
- OVER 4.5 (-107)
- DraftKings
- Modeled Fair Line
- 5.2
- 0.7 Pt Delta
- Modeled Fair Price
- -146
- +16.5% EV
- Posted Line Drift
- 5.5 → 4.5 (-1.0)
- Last 6 Active Games
- Matchup (CT)
- BOS @ MIL
- NBA Props Lane CLV
- 75 / 11 / 39
- Beat / Tied / Lost
Sportsbook Posted Assists Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (5.2 / -146)
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 30 to Nov 8), sportsbooks adjusted Derrick White's posted assists line downward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 5.5 to 4.5 (-1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for BOS @ MIL is 5.2 (-146).
6-Game Posted Assists Ledger (Derrick White)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI @ BOS | 5.5 (+122) | — | 4 | Under | |
| BOS @ ORL | 4.5 (-155) | -1.0 | 2 | Under | |
| BOS @ HOU | 4.5 (-115) | 0.0 | 3 | Under | |
| MIL @ BOS | 6.5 (+105) | +2.0 | 7 | Over | |
| BOS @ CHA | 4.5 (+108) | -2.0 | 5 | Over | |
| BOS @ MIL | 4.5 (-107) | 0.0 | — | Fair 5.2 |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 6 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Balanced Pricing6-Game Window
Derrick White Assists Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Book step adjustment (-1.0) tracks actual window production (-1.3).
Unpriced Book Step-Lag-0.3Max Single-Game Book Step: -2.0
- Window Open Line
- 5.5
- Current Posted Line
- 4.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- -1.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 4.2
- Actual Output Delta
- -1.3
- Modeled Fair Value
- 5.2 (-146)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 · vs CHI | 5.5 | — | 4 | -1.5 |
| Nov 1 · @ ORL | 4.5 | -1.0 | 2 | -2.5 |
| Nov 2 · @ HOU | 4.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -1.5 |
| Nov 4 · vs MIL | 6.5 | +2.0 | 7 | +0.5 |
| Nov 6 · @ CHA | 4.5 | -2.0 | 5 | +0.5 |
| Nov 8 · @ MIL | 4.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
WagerBird Write-Up · Derrick White Assists (Over 4.5)
Free Dossier ReleaseWrite-Up Thesis
White’s 5.1-assist season average and recent five-assist performance support the projection.
02 · Fundamental Driver
Recent output
5 AST NOV 6 — He recorded five assists in the latest game. That is consistent with his season rate and gives the projection a recent-game anchor.
Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Thesis Invalidation Risks
White’s recent minutes have varied, and he had four assists in a 25-minute outing. If Tatum and George dominate the ball or teammates miss open shots, the modest projection margin can disappear.
Settlement Rule: CASHES DERRICK WHITE OVER 4.5 ASSISTS. · NO PUSH ON THE HALF
WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift · Balanced AllocationBOS @ MIL · Points
BOS @ MIL · Boston Celtics WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–5) ()
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Boston Celtics's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
BOS Rotation Mode: Balanced Allocation5 of 5 Core-6 Scorers Holding SteadyBalanced Core-6 Scoring Allocation: Implied Team Total Pressure Neutral
Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)
-25.5 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 92.0 vs. 117.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80.5 | 87.5% | 92.0 | 117.5 (-114) | -25.5 |
Compare BOS Team Total Partner Quotes:
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Jayson Tatum BOS · Prev 26.5 (0.0) | 26.5 | 31.2% | 22.6%(-8.6% vs Hist) | -2.0 | Steady Share | |
#2 Paul George BOS · Prev 17.5 (0.0) | 17.5 | 18.7% | 14.9%(-3.8% vs Hist) | -3.0 | Steady Share | |
#3 Derrick White BOS · Prev 13.5 (0.0) | 13.5 | 15.4% | 11.5%(-3.9% vs Hist) | -2.0 | Steady Share | |
#4 Payton Pritchard BOS · Prev 13.5 (0.0) | 13.5 | 12.0% | 11.5%(-0.5% vs Hist) | -2.0 | Steady Share | |
#5 Neemias Queta BOS · Prev 9.5 (0.0) | 9.5 | 10.2% | 8.1%(-2.1% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Steady Share |
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team pages.
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault2 Tracked Write-Ups
Derrick White Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (1 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Derrick White prop write-up.
Derrick White CLV Counts
1 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost
1 Settled CLV Receipt| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | BOS @ MIL | Assists | Over 4.5 (-104) · ProphetX | 4.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
| Nov 6 | BOS @ CHA | Points | Under 14.5 (-124) · DraftKings | 13.5 | 18 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Derrick White Prop Write-Ups
Nov 6 CT · BOS @ CHA · PointsFull Write-Up →
Tatum's return reduces the need for White to repeat the shooting and free-throw workload of his latest appearance.
Counter-Case: Extra ball-handling when the bench backcourt is short-handed could keep his attempt count elevated. Drives that draw fouls or a productive pull-up shooting night would defeat the expected scoring restraint.
NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (75 Beat, 11 Tied, 39 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 7 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 9 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |