01 · Fundamental Driver
Season scoring
16.4 PPG · 28.4 MIN AVG — Jaquez averages 16.4 points in 28.4 minutes across nine games. His regular rotation role provides a dependable base of scoring chances.
Posted Line Trajectory: Trending Down (-1.0 over 6 games)Free Dossier Release
Jaime Jaquez Jr. Points Prop (Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks, ): Fair Line 15.6 (-185) vs 13.5 Market
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
BetMGM: Over 13.5 (-115)Modeled Edge: +21.5% EV · Fair Value 15.6 (-185)
- Pick & Release Line
- OVER 13.5 (-110)
- ProphetX
- Modeled Fair Line
- 15.6
- 2.1 Pt Delta
- Modeled Fair Price
- -185
- +21.5% EV
- Posted Line Drift
- 14.5 → 13.5 (-1.0)
- Last 6 Active Games
- Matchup (CT)
- BOS @ MIL
- NBA Props Lane CLV
- 75 / 11 / 39
- Beat / Tied / Lost
Sportsbook Posted Points Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (15.6 / -185)
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 28 to Nov 8), sportsbooks adjusted Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s posted points line downward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 14.5 to 13.5 (-1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for BOS @ MIL is 15.6 (-185).
6-Game Posted Points Ledger (Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU @ MIL | 14.5 (+100) | — | 19 | Over | |
| CLE @ MIL | 15.5 (-105) | +1.0 | 8 | Under | |
| MIL @ MIN | 13.5 (-113) | -2.0 | 19 | Over | |
| MIL @ BOS | 13.5 (-120) | 0.0 | 18 | Over | |
| TOR @ MIL | 14.5 (-118) | +1.0 | 14 | Under | |
| BOS @ MIL | 13.5 (-110) | -1.0 | — | Fair 15.6 |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 6 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Lagging Production6-Game Window
Jaime Jaquez Jr. Points Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Actual output +1.1 vs. -1.0 book step adjustment (+2.1 Unpriced Book Lag).
Unpriced Book Step-Lag+2.1Max Single-Game Book Step: -2.0
- Window Open Line
- 14.5
- Current Posted Line
- 13.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- -1.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 15.6
- Actual Output Delta
- +1.1
- Modeled Fair Value
- 15.6 (-185)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 · vs HOU | 14.5 | — | 19 | +4.5 |
| Oct 31 · vs CLE | 15.5 | +1.0 | 8 | -7.5 |
| Nov 2 · @ MIN | 13.5 | -2.0 | 19 | +5.5 |
| Nov 4 · @ BOS | 13.5 | 0.0 | 18 | +4.5 |
| Nov 6 · vs TOR | 14.5 | +1.0 | 14 | -0.5 |
| Nov 8 · vs BOS | 13.5 | -1.0 | — | — |
WagerBird Write-Up · Jaime Jaquez Jr. Points (Over 13.5)
Free Dossier ReleaseWrite-Up Thesis
Jaquez’s season scoring average and steady rotation minutes support a projection above his recent scoring threshold.
02 · Fundamental Driver
Shot generation
15.6 PTS PROJ · 14+ IN 5 OF 6 — He has scored 14 or more points in five of the six game logs available through Nov. 4, and the projection is 15.6 points on 28.5 expected minutes. That steady output gives him multiple ways to clear the mark.
Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Thesis Invalidation Risks
Jaquez can have an inefficient shooting night, as shown by an eight-point game against Indiana in 25 minutes. A large Boston lead could also reduce his late-game minutes.
Settlement Rule: CASHES JAIME JAQUEZ JR. OVER 13.5 POINTS. · NO PUSH ON THE HALF
WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift · Team Tide ShiftBOS @ MIL · Points
BOS @ MIL · Milwaukee Bucks WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) ()
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Milwaukee Bucks's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
MIL Rotation Mode: Team Tide ShiftTeam Tide Shift: 5 of 6 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted DownTeam Tide Shift (Bearish): Market Compressing Core-6 Scoring Ceiling
Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)
-15.7 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 87.8 vs. 103.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73.0 | 83.1% | 87.8 | 103.5 (-115) | -15.7 |
Compare MIL Team Total Partner Quotes:
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Tyler Herro MIL · Prev 20.5 (-1.0) | 19.5 | 24.1% | 18.8%(-5.3% vs Hist) | -1.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#2 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIL · Prev 14.5 (-1.0) | 13.5 | 15.9% | 13.0%(-2.9% vs Hist) | -1.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#3 Brayden Burries MIL · Prev 10.5 (+1.0) | 11.5 | 12.4% | 11.1%(-1.3% vs Hist) | +4.0 | Usage Transfer | |
#4 Myles Turner MIL · Prev 10.5 (-1.0) | 9.5 | 8.3% | 9.2%(+0.9% vs Hist) | -1.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#5 Kyle Kuzma MIL · Prev 10.5 (-1.0) | 9.5 | 10.4% | 9.2%(-1.2% vs Hist) | -2.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#6 Ryan Rollins MIL · Prev 11.5 (-2.0) | 9.5 | 12.0% | 9.2%(-2.8% vs Hist) | -4.0 | Team Tide Shift |
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team pages.
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up
Jaime Jaquez Jr. Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)
1 active Jaime Jaquez Jr. prop write-up tracked awaiting closing line settlement.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. CLV Counts
0 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost
0 Settled CLV Receipts| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | BOS @ MIL | Points | Over 13.5 (-115) · BetMGM | 13.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (75 Beat, 11 Tied, 39 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 7 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 9 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |