01 · Fundamental Driver
Scoring base
22.3 PTS AVG · 17.2 FGA AVG — Herro averages 22.3 points on 17.2 field-goal attempts in nine games. His high shot volume gives the points component room to carry much of the combined result.
Posted Line Trajectory: Trending Down (-1.0 over 6 games)Free Dossier Release
Tyler Herro Points + Rebounds Prop (Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks, ): Fair Line 27.0 (-153) vs 24.5 Market
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
FanDuel: Over 24.5 (-110)Modeled Edge: +17.4% EV · Fair Value 27.0 (-153)
- Pick & Release Line
- OVER 24.5 (-110)
- FanDuel
- Modeled Fair Line
- 27.0
- 2.5 Pt Delta
- Modeled Fair Price
- -153
- +17.4% EV
- Posted Line Drift
- 25.5 → 24.5 (-1.0)
- Last 6 Active Games
- Matchup (CT)
- BOS @ MIL
- NBA Props Lane CLV
- 75 / 11 / 39
- Beat / Tied / Lost
Sportsbook Posted Points + Rebounds Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points + rebounds total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (27.0 / -153)
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 28 to Nov 8), sportsbooks adjusted Tyler Herro's posted points + rebounds line downward in 3 of 5 game-over-game steps from 25.5 to 24.5 (-1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for BOS @ MIL is 27.0 (-153).
6-Game Posted Points + Rebounds Ledger (Tyler Herro)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU @ MIL | 25.5 (-115) | — | 26 | Over | |
| CLE @ MIL | 26.5 (-111) | +1.0 | 18 | Under | |
| MIL @ MIN | 25.5 (-105) | -1.0 | 27 | Over | |
| MIL @ BOS | 24.5 (-104) | -1.0 | 30 | Over | |
| TOR @ MIL | 25.5 (-104) | +1.0 | 28 | Over | |
| BOS @ MIL | 24.5 (-110) | -1.0 | — | Fair 27.0 |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Lagging Production6-Game Window
Tyler Herro Points + Rebounds Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Actual output +0.3 vs. -1.0 book step adjustment (+1.3 Unpriced Book Lag).
Unpriced Book Step-Lag+1.3Max Single-Game Book Step: -1.0
- Window Open Line
- 25.5
- Current Posted Line
- 24.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- -1.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 25.8
- Actual Output Delta
- +0.3
- Modeled Fair Value
- 27.0 (-153)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 · vs HOU | 25.5 | — | 26 | +0.5 |
| Oct 31 · vs CLE | 26.5 | +1.0 | 18 | -8.5 |
| Nov 2 · @ MIN | 25.5 | -1.0 | 27 | +1.5 |
| Nov 4 · @ BOS | 24.5 | -1.0 | 30 | +5.5 |
| Nov 6 · vs TOR | 25.5 | +1.0 | 28 | +2.5 |
| Nov 8 · vs BOS | 24.5 | -1.0 | — | — |
WagerBird Write-Up · Tyler Herro Points + Rebounds (Over 24.5)
Free Dossier ReleaseWrite-Up Thesis
Herro’s strong scoring baseline and reliable five-rebound average give the combined total two productive routes.
02 · Fundamental Driver
Rebound support
5.0 REB AVG · 31.2 MIN AVG — He adds five rebounds per game while playing 31.2 minutes. That secondary contribution provides useful support when his scoring falls short of his usual output.
Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Thesis Invalidation Risks
Herro needs either a typical scoring night or enough rebounds to offset a quieter shooting performance. Boston’s projected lead could reduce his fourth-quarter playing time and lower both components.
Settlement Rule: CASHES TYLER HERRO OVER 24.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS. · NO PUSH ON THE HALF
WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift · Team Tide ShiftBOS @ MIL · Points
BOS @ MIL · Milwaukee Bucks WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) ()
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Milwaukee Bucks's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
MIL Rotation Mode: Team Tide ShiftTeam Tide Shift: 5 of 6 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted DownTeam Tide Shift (Bearish): Market Compressing Core-6 Scoring Ceiling
Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)
-23.5 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 81.0 vs. 104.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73.0 | 90.1% | 81.0 | 104.5 | -23.5 |
Compare MIL Team Total Partner Quotes:
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Tyler Herro MIL · Prev 20.5 (-1.0) | 19.5 | 26.1% | 18.7%(-7.4% vs Hist) | -1.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#2 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIL · Prev 14.5 (-1.0) | 13.5 | 17.3% | 12.9%(-4.4% vs Hist) | -1.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#3 Brayden Burries MIL · Prev 10.5 (+1.0) | 11.5 | 13.5% | 11.0%(-2.5% vs Hist) | +4.0 | Usage Transfer | |
#4 Myles Turner MIL · Prev 10.5 (-1.0) | 9.5 | 9.0% | 9.1%(+0.1% vs Hist) | -1.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#5 Kyle Kuzma MIL · Prev 10.5 (-1.0) | 9.5 | 11.2% | 9.1%(-2.1% vs Hist) | -2.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#6 Ryan Rollins MIL · Prev 11.5 (-2.0) | 9.5 | 13.0% | 9.1%(-3.9% vs Hist) | -4.0 | Team Tide Shift |
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team pages.
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up
Tyler Herro Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)
1 active Tyler Herro prop write-up tracked awaiting closing line settlement.
Tyler Herro CLV Counts
0 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost
0 Settled CLV Receipts| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | BOS @ MIL | Points + Rebounds | Over 24.5 (-106) · FanDuel | 24.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (75 Beat, 11 Tied, 39 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 7 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 9 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |