01 · Fundamental Driver
Season playmaking
3.0 AST AVG · 27.0 MIN AVG — Kuzma averages 3.0 assists in 27 minutes per game. His forward role includes enough passing opportunities to find cutters and perimeter shooters.
Posted Line Trajectory: Flat (0.0 over 6 games)Free Dossier Release
Kyle Kuzma Assists Prop (Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks, ): Fair Line 2.9 (-124) vs 2.5 Market
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
ProphetX: Over 2.5 (-104)Modeled Edge: +18.0% EV · Fair Value 2.9 (-124)
- Pick & Release Line
- OVER 2.5 (-101)
- DraftKings
- Modeled Fair Line
- 2.9
- 0.4 Pt Delta
- Modeled Fair Price
- -124
- +18.0% EV
- Posted Line Drift
- 2.5 → 2.5 (0.0)
- Last 6 Active Games
- Matchup (CT)
- BOS @ MIL
- NBA Props Lane CLV
- 75 / 11 / 39
- Beat / Tied / Lost
Sportsbook Posted Assists Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (2.9 / -124)
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 28 to Nov 8), Kyle Kuzma's posted assists line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for BOS @ MIL is 2.9 (-124).
6-Game Posted Assists Ledger (Kyle Kuzma)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU @ MIL | 2.5 (-132) | — | 1 | Under | |
| CLE @ MIL | 2.5 (-102) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| MIL @ MIN | 2.5 (+114) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| MIL @ BOS | 2.5 (+142) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| TOR @ MIL | 2.5 (+121) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| BOS @ MIL | 2.5 (-101) | 0.0 | — | Fair 2.9 |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Balanced Pricing6-Game Window
Kyle Kuzma Assists Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.3).
Unpriced Book Step-Lag+0.3Max Single-Game Book Step: 0.0
- Window Open Line
- 2.5
- Current Posted Line
- 2.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- 0.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 2.8
- Actual Output Delta
- +0.3
- Modeled Fair Value
- 2.9 (-124)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 · vs HOU | 2.5 | — | 1 | -1.5 |
| Oct 31 · vs CLE | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Nov 2 · @ MIN | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Nov 4 · @ BOS | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Nov 6 · vs TOR | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Nov 8 · vs BOS | 2.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
WagerBird Write-Up · Kyle Kuzma Assists (Over 2.5)
Free Dossier ReleaseWrite-Up Thesis
Kuzma’s season assist average and recent four-assist game support a small projection above the line.
02 · Fundamental Driver
Recent opponent game
4 AST NOV 4 — He recorded four assists against Boston in the recent meeting. That shows he can contribute as a passer even when scoring is limited.
Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Thesis Invalidation Risks
Kuzma’s season average is only slightly above the threshold, so a low-touch night can leave him short. If Milwaukee’s guards control more possessions, his opportunities to initiate may shrink.
Settlement Rule: CASHES KYLE KUZMA OVER 2.5 ASSISTS. · NO PUSH ON THE HALF
WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift · Team Tide ShiftBOS @ MIL · Points
BOS @ MIL · Milwaukee Bucks WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) ()
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Milwaukee Bucks's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
MIL Rotation Mode: Team Tide ShiftTeam Tide Shift: 5 of 6 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted DownTeam Tide Shift (Bearish): Market Compressing Core-6 Scoring Ceiling
Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)
-23.5 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 81.0 vs. 104.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73.0 | 90.1% | 81.0 | 104.5 | -23.5 |
Compare MIL Team Total Partner Quotes:
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Tyler Herro MIL · Prev 20.5 (-1.0) | 19.5 | 26.1% | 18.7%(-7.4% vs Hist) | -1.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#2 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIL · Prev 14.5 (-1.0) | 13.5 | 17.3% | 12.9%(-4.4% vs Hist) | -1.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#3 Brayden Burries MIL · Prev 10.5 (+1.0) | 11.5 | 13.5% | 11.0%(-2.5% vs Hist) | +4.0 | Usage Transfer | |
#4 Myles Turner MIL · Prev 10.5 (-1.0) | 9.5 | 9.0% | 9.1%(+0.1% vs Hist) | -1.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#5 Kyle Kuzma MIL · Prev 10.5 (-1.0) | 9.5 | 11.2% | 9.1%(-2.1% vs Hist) | -2.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#6 Ryan Rollins MIL · Prev 11.5 (-2.0) | 9.5 | 13.0% | 9.1%(-3.9% vs Hist) | -4.0 | Team Tide Shift |
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team pages.
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up
Kyle Kuzma Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)
1 active Kyle Kuzma prop write-up tracked awaiting closing line settlement.
Kyle Kuzma CLV Counts
0 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost
0 Settled CLV Receipts| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | BOS @ MIL | Assists | Over 2.5 (+113) · ProphetX | 2.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (75 Beat, 11 Tied, 39 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 7 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 9 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |