01 · Fundamental Driver
Established finishing production
15.4 PTS · 27.1 MIN — Allen averaged 15.4 points in 27.1 minutes last season. His scoring can reach this threshold through ordinary interior opportunities rather than a new perimeter role.
Posted Line Trajectory: Trending Up (+1.0 over 2 games)Settled / Live Release · Full Dossier Unlocked
Jarrett Allen Points Prop (Brooklyn Nets @ Cleveland Cavaliers, ): Fair Line 15.3 (-233) vs 13.5 Market
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
FanDuel: Over 12.5 (-136)Modeled Edge: +28.2% EV · Fair Value 15.3 (-233)
- Pick & Release Line
- OVER 13.5 (-115)
- Fanatics
- Modeled Fair Line
- 15.3
- 1.8 Pt Delta
- Modeled Fair Price
- -233
- +28.2% EV
- Posted Line Drift
- 12.5 → 13.5 (+1.0)
- Last 2 Active Games
- Matchup (CT)
- BKN @ CLE
- NBA Props Lane CLV
- 73 / 11 / 36
- Beat / Tied / Lost
Sportsbook Posted Points Line Trajectory (Last 2 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (15.3 / -233)
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 2 active games (Oct 22 to Oct 24), sportsbooks adjusted Jarrett Allen's posted points line upward in 1 of 1 game-over-game steps from 12.5 to 13.5 (+1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for BKN @ CLE is 15.3 (-233).
2-Game Posted Points Ledger (Jarrett Allen)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE @ PHI | 12.5 (-111) | — | 14 | Over | |
| BKN @ CLE | 13.5 (-115) | +1.0 | 21 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 3 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Lagging Production2-Game Window
Jarrett Allen Points Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Actual output +5.0 vs. +1.0 book step adjustment (+4.0 Unpriced Book Lag).
Unpriced Book Step-Lag+4.0Max Single-Game Book Step: +1.0
- Window Open Line
- 12.5
- Current Posted Line
- 13.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- +1.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 17.5
- Actual Output Delta
- +5.0
- Modeled Fair Value
- 15.3 (-233)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 · @ PHI | 12.5 | — | 14 | +1.5 |
| Oct 24 · vs BKN | 13.5 | +1.0 | 21 | +7.5 |
WagerBird Write-Up · Jarrett Allen Points (Over 13.5)
Full Dossier UnlockedWrite-Up Thesis
Allen's established finishing production and opening-game workload support the scoring threshold without requiring extra minutes.
02 · Fundamental Driver
Opening workload held
14 PTS · 10 FGA — Allen opened with 14 points on ten attempts in 28:13. That workload provides a direct route through catches and finishes without needing a playing-time expansion.
Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Thesis Invalidation Risks
Early fouls can interrupt Allen's interior minutes and remove easy finishing chances. Cleveland's guards can also score directly off penetration instead of delivering the roll pass, leaving him efficient but short on attempts.
Settlement Rule: CASHES JARRETT ALLEN OVER 12.5 POINTS AT 13 OR MORE; NO PUSH ON THE HALF-POINT LINE.
WagerBird Nucleus Drift · Team Prop Signal
BKN @ CLE · Cleveland Cavaliers Points Nucleus Drift ()
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Cleveland Cavaliers's 5 primary contributors.
CLE Nucleus Drift1 of 5 Core Props Adjusted UpBalanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
| Cleveland Cavaliers Contributor | Nov 2 vs OKC | Nov 4 @ OKC | Nov 6 vs PHI | Nov 7 vs NYK | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell CLE · Points | 23.5 | 21.5 | 24.5 | 23.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Evan Mobley CLE · Points | 17.5 | 15.5 | 18.5 | 17.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| James Harden CLE · Points | 18.5 | 16.5 | 18.5 | 17.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jarrett Allen CLE · Points | 12.5 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 11.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Peyton Watson CLE · Points | 12.5 | — | 10.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Cleveland Cavaliers (CLE)1 of 5 Core Props Adjusted Up
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Brooklyn Nets (BKN)2 of 4 Core Props Adjusted Down
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team dossiers.
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up
Jarrett Allen Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (1 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Jarrett Allen prop write-up.
Jarrett Allen CLV Counts
1 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost
1 Settled CLV Receipt| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BKN @ CLE | Points | Over 12.5 (-120) · FanDuel | 13.5 | 21 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Jarrett Allen Prop Write-Ups
Oct 24 CT · BKN @ CLE · PointsFull Write-Up →
Allen's established finishing production and opening-game workload support the scoring threshold without requiring extra minutes.
Counter-Case: Early fouls can interrupt Allen's interior minutes and remove easy finishing chances. Cleveland's guards can also score directly off penetration instead of delivering the roll pass, leaving him efficient but short on attempts.
NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |