01 · Fundamental Driver
Perimeter attempt base
7.1 3PA · 26 GAMES — Harden averaged 7.1 three-point attempts in his 26-game Cleveland split. That volume creates multiple shooting opportunities even when some possessions end in passes or drives.
Posted Line Trajectory: Flat (0.0 over 2 games)Settled / Live Release · Full Dossier Unlocked
James Harden 3-Pointers Made Prop (Brooklyn Nets @ Cleveland Cavaliers, ): Fair Line 2.8 (-113) vs 2.5 Market
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
DraftKings: Over 2.5 (+136)Modeled Edge: +23.1% EV · Fair Value 2.8 (-113)
- Pick & Release Line
- OVER 2.5 (+136)
- DraftKings
- Modeled Fair Line
- 2.8
- 0.3 Pt Delta
- Modeled Fair Price
- -113
- +23.1% EV
- Posted Line Drift
- 2.5 → 2.5 (0.0)
- Last 2 Active Games
- Matchup (CT)
- BKN @ CLE
- NBA Props Lane CLV
- 73 / 11 / 36
- Beat / Tied / Lost
Sportsbook Posted 3-Pointers Made Line Trajectory (Last 2 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted 3-pointers made total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (2.8 / -113)
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 2 active games (Oct 22 to Oct 24), James Harden's posted 3-pointers made line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for BKN @ CLE is 2.8 (-113).
2-Game Posted 3-Pointers Made Ledger (James Harden)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE @ PHI | 2.5 (+124) | — | 3 | Over | |
| BKN @ CLE | 2.5 (+136) | 0.0 | 1 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Balanced Pricing2-Game Window
James Harden 3-Pointers Made Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (-0.5).
Unpriced Book Step-Lag-0.5Max Single-Game Book Step: 0.0
- Window Open Line
- 2.5
- Current Posted Line
- 2.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- 0.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 2.0
- Actual Output Delta
- -0.5
- Modeled Fair Value
- 2.8 (-113)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 · @ PHI | 2.5 | — | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 24 · vs BKN | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
WagerBird Write-Up · James Harden 3-Pointers Made (Over 2.5)
Full Dossier UnlockedWrite-Up Thesis
Harden's established perimeter attempt volume gives him a credible route to several made threes without relying on his prior conversion rate repeating.
02 · Fundamental Driver
Opening shot selection
3 OF 6 · 32:55 MIN — Harden made three of six perimeter attempts in 32:55 in the opener. His opening workload kept the three-point shot involved rather than replacing it with an exclusively passing-oriented role.
Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Thesis Invalidation Risks
Harden can favor drives and pocket passes instead of taking available pull-up threes. Pressure can also move the ball out of his hands, leaving too few attempts or an ordinary cold stretch to stop the third make.
Settlement Rule: CASHES JAMES HARDEN OVER 2.5 MADE THREES AT 3 OR MORE; NO PUSH ON THE HALF-POINT LINE.
WagerBird Nucleus Drift · Team Prop Signal
BKN @ CLE · Cleveland Cavaliers Points Nucleus Drift ()
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Cleveland Cavaliers's 5 primary contributors.
CLE Nucleus Drift1 of 5 Core Props Adjusted UpBalanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
| Cleveland Cavaliers Contributor | Nov 2 vs OKC | Nov 4 @ OKC | Nov 6 vs PHI | Nov 7 vs NYK | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell CLE · Points | 23.5 | 21.5 | 24.5 | 23.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Evan Mobley CLE · Points | 17.5 | 15.5 | 18.5 | 17.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| James Harden CLE · Points | 18.5 | 16.5 | 18.5 | 17.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jarrett Allen CLE · Points | 12.5 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 11.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Peyton Watson CLE · Points | 12.5 | — | 10.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Cleveland Cavaliers (CLE)1 of 5 Core Props Adjusted Up
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Brooklyn Nets (BKN)2 of 4 Core Props Adjusted Down
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team dossiers.
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up
James Harden Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 1 Lost)
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled James Harden prop write-up.
James Harden CLV Counts
0 Beat · 0 Tied · 1 Lost
1 Settled CLV Receipt| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BKN @ CLE | 3-Pointers Made | Over 2.5 (+132) · DraftKings | 2.5 | 1 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled James Harden Prop Write-Ups
Oct 24 CT · BKN @ CLE · 3-Pointers MadeFull Write-Up →
Harden's established perimeter attempt volume gives him a credible route to several made threes without relying on his prior conversion rate repeating.
Counter-Case: Harden can favor drives and pocket passes instead of taking available pull-up threes. Pressure can also move the ball out of his hands, leaving too few attempts or an ordinary cold stretch to stop the third make.
NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |