NBA Player Prop & CLV DossierTeam: CLEPosted Line Trajectory: Trending Down (-1.0 over 6 games)

Donovan Mitchell (NBA) Posted Points Line Trajectory & CLV Record

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)

NBA Player Props CLV Counts
73 Beat · 11 Tied · 36 Lost
Donovan Mitchell Releases: 0 Beat / 0 Tied / 2 Lost

Sportsbook Posted Points Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)

Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game.

Posted Book Line
Across the last 6 active games (Oct 29 to Nov 7), sportsbooks adjusted Donovan Mitchell's posted points line downward in 3 of 5 game-over-game steps from 24.5 to 23.5 (-1.0).25.524.523.522.521.520.524.524.523.521.524.523.5Oct 29CLE @ ATLOct 31CLE @ MILNov 2OKC @ CLENov 4CLE @ OKCNov 6PHI @ CLENov 7NYK @ CLE

Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 29 to Nov 7), sportsbooks adjusted Donovan Mitchell's posted points line downward in 3 of 5 game-over-game steps from 24.5 to 23.5 (-1.0).

6-Game Posted Points Ledger (Donovan Mitchell)

America/Chicago (CT)
Date (CT)MatchupPosted LineMoveActualResult
CLE @ ATL24.5 (+104)—22Under
CLE @ MIL24.5 (+105)0.015Under
OKC @ CLE23.5 (-104)-1.017Under
CLE @ OKC21.5 (-105)-2.027Over
PHI @ CLE24.5 (-113)+3.023Under
NYK @ CLE23.5 (-106)-1.0—Upcoming

Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.

Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Ahead of Production6-Game Window

Donovan Mitchell Points Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)

Books adjusted -1.0 vs. -3.7 actual output delta (-2.7 Book Over-Adjustment).

Unpriced Book Step-Lag-2.7Max Single-Game Book Step: +3.0
Window Open Line
24.5
Current Posted Line
23.5
Book Cumulative Step
-1.0
Actual Window Avg
20.8
Actual Output Delta
-3.7
Modeled Fair Value
—
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
Donovan Mitchell Sticky Book Anchoring Meter: 6-game Posted Points Line vs Actual Box-Score Output301222Oct 29@ ATL15Oct 31@ MIL17Nov 2vs OKC27Nov 4@ OKC23Nov 6vs PHINov 7vs NYK
Game (CT)Posted LineBook StepActualBox Surplus
Oct 29 · @ ATL24.5—22-2.5
Oct 31 · @ MIL24.50.015-9.5
Nov 2 · vs OKC23.5-1.017-6.5
Nov 4 · @ OKC21.5-2.027+5.5
Nov 6 · vs PHI24.5+3.023-1.5
Nov 7 · vs NYK23.5-1.0——
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up

Donovan Mitchell Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 1 Lost)

0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Donovan Mitchell prop write-up.

Donovan Mitchell CLV Counts
0 Beat · 0 Tied · 1 Lost
1 Settled CLV Receipt
Date (CT)MatchupMarketRelease QuoteClosing LineActualCLV GradeWrite-Up
Oct 24BKN @ CLEPointsOver 26.5 (-105) · BetMGM25.522LostRead Write-Up →

Archived Settled Donovan Mitchell Prop Write-Ups

Oct 24 CT · BKN @ CLE · PointsFull Write-Up →

Mitchell's established attempt volume and opening minutes support another primary-scorer workload.

Counter-Case: Harden can assume more initiation and leave Mitchell with fewer high-value possessions. A decisive Cleveland lead can remove his closing stint before the scoring total has accumulated.

Donovan Mitchell WagerBird Prop Release & CLV Archive

Date (CT)MatchupMarketReleaseCloseActualCLV Grade
Oct 24BKN @ CLEPointsOver 26.525.522Lost
Oct 22CLE @ PHIAssistsOver 4.54.53Lost

NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)

WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)
Prop Lane WindowBeat CloseTied CloseLost Close
Season to date (from Sep 23 CT)731136
Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT)731136