By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted 3-pointers made total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 20 to Oct 30), Duncan Robinson's posted 3-pointers made line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for DET @ BKN is 3.6 (-230).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS @ DET | 2.5 (+105) | — | 5 | Over | |
| DET @ MIA | 2.5 (+105) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| DET @ PHI | 2.5 (-130) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| DET @ NYK | 2.5 (-138) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| CHA @ DET | 3.5 (+128) | +1.0 | 3 | Under | |
| DET @ BKN | 2.5 (-158) | -1.0 | 2 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 3 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.2 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.2 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 · vs BOS | 2.5 | — | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 23 · @ MIA | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 25 · @ PHI | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 27 · @ NYK | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 28 · vs CHA | 3.5 | +1.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Oct 30 · @ BKN | 2.5 | -1.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
Robinson's sustained three-point attempt volume supports three makes even with cooler shooting.
9.2 THREE-POINT ATTEMPTS · 75.4% SHOT SHARE — Robinson attempted 46 threes among 61 total field-goal attempts through five games, averaging 9.2 perimeter attempts. His offense is built around the shot this selection needs, rather than occasional attempts added to an interior scoring role.
9 ATTEMPTS × 40.0% · 3.6 MAKES — His career three-point rate is 40.0%, below the recent 20-for-46 stretch. Nine attempts at that career rate translate to 3.6 makes, so maintaining the opening hot streak is not required.
Brooklyn can deny Robinson's off-ball catches and chase him away from clean perimeter attempts. Early fouls can interrupt his shooting rhythm and minutes, while a cold stretch can leave a normal attempt load short of three makes.
Settlement Rule: CASHES DUNCAN ROBINSON OVER 2.5 MADE THREES WITH AT LEAST THREE MAKES; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Detroit Pistons's 5 primary contributors.
| Detroit Pistons Contributor | Oct 28 vs CHA | Oct 30 @ BKN | Nov 2 @ CHA | Nov 4 vs PHI | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham DET · Points | 23.5 | 23.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Paul Reed DET · Points | 12.5 | 15.5 | 13.5 | 12.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| John Collins DET · Points | 14.5 | 14.5 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Duncan Robinson DET · Points | 12.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 14.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Ausar Thompson DET · Points | 9.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
2 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Duncan Robinson prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | DET @ BKN | 3-Pointers Made | Over 2.5 (-150) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 25 | DET @ PHI | 3-Pointers Made | Over 2.5 (-115) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 5 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Robinson's sustained three-point attempt volume supports three makes even with cooler shooting.
Counter-Case: Brooklyn can deny Robinson's off-ball catches and chase him away from clean perimeter attempts. Early fouls can interrupt his shooting rhythm and minutes, while a cold stretch can leave a normal attempt load short of three makes.
Robinson's perimeter-heavy shot diet creates enough attempts to reach three made threes without repeating his opening-week shooting percentage.
Counter-Case: Aggressive closeouts could force Robinson off the arc and turn catches into passes. Early fouls or a defensive substitution could also cut his floor time. A slower opening half would leave fewer opportunities to accumulate makes.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |