By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted 3-pointers made total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 3 active games (Oct 20 to Oct 25), Duncan Robinson's posted 3-pointers made line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for DET @ PHI is 3.3 (-178).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS @ DET | 2.5 (+105) | — | 5 | Over | |
| DET @ MIA | 2.5 (+105) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| DET @ PHI | 2.5 (-130) | 0.0 | 5 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +2.5 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+2.5 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 · vs BOS | 2.5 | — | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 23 · @ MIA | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 25 · @ PHI | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
Robinson's perimeter-heavy shot diet creates enough attempts to reach three made threes without repeating his opening-week shooting percentage.
7.0 3PA · 2.9 3PM · 77 GAMES — Robinson averaged 2.9 made threes on 7.0 attempts across 77 games last season. With 7.0 of his 9.1 field-goal attempts coming from the perimeter, his opportunities do not require a primary scoring role.
19 3PA · 2 GAMES · 28 MIN — He has launched 19 threes across the opening two games while averaging 27.5 minutes. The expected 28-minute workload supports approximately 8.2 attempts, with 40.5% conversion sufficient for the 3.3-make projection rather than requiring another 52.6% shooting performance.
Aggressive closeouts could force Robinson off the arc and turn catches into passes. Early fouls or a defensive substitution could also cut his floor time. A slower opening half would leave fewer opportunities to accumulate makes.
Settlement Rule: CASHES DUNCAN ROBINSON OVER 2.5 MADE THREES WITH AT LEAST 3 MAKES · NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Detroit Pistons's 5 primary contributors.
| Detroit Pistons Contributor | Oct 28 vs CHA | Oct 30 @ BKN | Nov 2 @ CHA | Nov 4 vs PHI | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham DET · Points | 23.5 | 23.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Paul Reed DET · Points | 12.5 | 15.5 | 13.5 | 12.5 | +8.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| John Collins DET · Points | 14.5 | 14.5 | 12.5 | 11.5 | +2.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Duncan Robinson DET · Points | 12.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 14.5 | +2.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Ausar Thompson DET · Points | 9.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
2 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Duncan Robinson prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | DET @ BKN | 3-Pointers Made | Over 2.5 (-150) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 25 | DET @ PHI | 3-Pointers Made | Over 2.5 (-115) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 5 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Robinson's sustained three-point attempt volume supports three makes even with cooler shooting.
Counter-Case: Brooklyn can deny Robinson's off-ball catches and chase him away from clean perimeter attempts. Early fouls can interrupt his shooting rhythm and minutes, while a cold stretch can leave a normal attempt load short of three makes.
Robinson's perimeter-heavy shot diet creates enough attempts to reach three made threes without repeating his opening-week shooting percentage.
Counter-Case: Aggressive closeouts could force Robinson off the arc and turn catches into passes. Early fouls or a defensive substitution could also cut his floor time. A slower opening half would leave fewer opportunities to accumulate makes.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |