By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 20 to Oct 30), Ausar Thompson's posted assists line has held net flat at 3.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for DET @ BKN is 4.6 (-207).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS @ DET | 3.5 (-103) | — | 5 | Over | |
| DET @ MIA | 4.5 (+111) | +1.0 | 5 | Over | |
| DET @ PHI | 3.5 (-157) | -1.0 | — | — | |
| DET @ NYK | 3.5 (-122) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| CHA @ DET | 3.5 (+106) | 0.0 | 8 | Over | |
| DET @ BKN | 3.5 (-152) | 0.0 | 6 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.7 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.7 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 · vs BOS | 3.5 | — | 5 | +1.5 |
| Oct 23 · @ MIA | 4.5 | +1.0 | 5 | +0.5 |
| Oct 25 · @ PHI | 3.5 | -1.0 | — | — |
| Oct 27 · @ NYK | 3.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -1.5 |
| Oct 28 · vs CHA | 3.5 | 0.0 | 8 | +4.5 |
| Oct 30 · @ BKN | 3.5 | 0.0 | 6 | +2.5 |
Thompson's passing rate and restored minutes create a route to four assists without repeating his latest peak.
20 AST · 107 MIN · 27 FGA — Thompson accumulated 20 assists and only 27 field-goal attempts across four appearances. That balance gives him a path through secondary creation rather than requiring a high-volume scoring role.
25 THEN 29 MIN · 8 AST LAST GAME — His latest two appearances lasted 25 and 29 minutes, with eight assists in the latter. A 29-minute workload lets the passing opportunities recur, and the 4.6-assist projection allows a reduction from his realized per-minute rate.
Cunningham can control more of the initiation and leave Thompson finishing cuts rather than supplying the final pass. Thompson's foul trouble can shorten his stint, while missed shots by teammates can strand otherwise productive passing possessions.
Settlement Rule: CASHES AUSAR THOMPSON OVER 3.5 ASSISTS WITH FOUR OR MORE ASSISTS; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Detroit Pistons's 5 primary contributors.
| Detroit Pistons Contributor | Oct 28 vs CHA | Oct 30 @ BKN | Nov 2 @ CHA | Nov 4 vs PHI | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham DET · Points | 23.5 | 23.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Paul Reed DET · Points | 12.5 | 15.5 | 13.5 | 12.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| John Collins DET · Points | 14.5 | 14.5 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Duncan Robinson DET · Points | 12.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 14.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Ausar Thompson DET · Points | 9.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Ausar Thompson prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | DET @ BKN | Assists | Over 3.5 (-130) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 6 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Thompson's passing rate and restored minutes create a route to four assists without repeating his latest peak.
Counter-Case: Cunningham can control more of the initiation and leave Thompson finishing cuts rather than supplying the final pass. Thompson's foul trouble can shorten his stint, while missed shots by teammates can strand otherwise productive passing possessions.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |