By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 5 active games (Oct 21 to Oct 31), sportsbooks adjusted Deni Avdija's posted assists line upward in 2 of 4 game-over-game steps from 4.5 to 6.5 (+2.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for POR @ UTA is 7.8 (-215).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX @ POR | 4.5 (+112) | — | 4 | Under | |
| POR @ SAC | 5.5 (+128) | +1.0 | 6 | Over | |
| POR @ LAL | 5.5 (+120) | 0.0 | 9 | Over | |
| MEM @ POR | 5.5 (+105) | 0.0 | 7 | Over | |
| POR @ UTA | 6.5 (-125) | +1.0 | 2 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (+2.0) tracks actual window production (+1.1).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · vs PHX | 4.5 | — | 4 | -0.5 |
| Oct 23 · @ SAC | 5.5 | +1.0 | 6 | +0.5 |
| Oct 27 · @ LAL | 5.5 | 0.0 | 9 | +3.5 |
| Oct 29 · vs MEM | 5.5 | 0.0 | 7 | +1.5 |
| Oct 31 · @ UTA | 6.5 | +1.0 | 2 | -4.5 |
Avdija's established assist production and additional initiation opportunity support seven assists over a longer projected shift.
6.7 AST · 33.3 MIN LAST SEASON — Avdija averaged 6.7 assists in 33.3 minutes last season. Extending that rate to thirty-five minutes brings him close to seven assists before adding any benefit from the changed backcourt.
7 AST · 32 MIN LATEST GAME — He delivered seven assists in thirty-two minutes against Memphis. Morant's absence creates additional initiation opportunities, and the projection allows a modest increase rather than transferring all of the missing guard's creation to Avdija.
Lillard or Holiday can make the final pass after Avdija creates the initial advantage, leaving him without an assist. Open jumpers that do not fall or a shortened closing stint can also prevent the required total.
Settlement Rule: CASHES DENI AVDIJA OVER 6.5 ASSISTS WITH SEVEN OR MORE ASSISTS; NO PUSH IS POSSIBLE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Portland Trail Blazers's 5 primary contributors.
| Portland Trail Blazers Contributor | Nov 2 @ DEN | Nov 4 @ PHX | Nov 6 @ LAL | Nov 7 vs SAS | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija POR · Points | 22.5 | 24.5 | 23.5 | 22.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Damian Lillard POR · Points | 20.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 20.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Scoot Henderson POR · Points | 13.5 | 13.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jrue Holiday POR · Points | 12.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Toumani Camara POR · Points | 12.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Deni Avdija prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | POR @ UTA | Assists | Over 6.5 (-129) · DraftKings | 6.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Avdija's established assist production and additional initiation opportunity support seven assists over a longer projected shift.
Counter-Case: Lillard or Holiday can make the final pass after Avdija creates the initial advantage, leaving him without an assist. Open jumpers that do not fall or a shortened closing stint can also prevent the required total.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |