By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted rebounds total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 21 to Oct 31), sportsbooks adjusted Ace Bailey's posted rebounds line upward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 3.5 to 5.5 (+2.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for POR @ UTA is 7.8 (-401).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA @ MEM | 3.5 (-165) | — | 5 | Over | |
| NOP @ UTA | 3.5 (-150) | 0.0 | 7 | Over | |
| LAL @ UTA | 3.5 (-131) | 0.0 | 12 | Over | |
| MEM @ UTA | 4.5 (-127) | +1.0 | 10 | Over | |
| SAS @ UTA | 5.5 (-130) | +1.0 | 6 | Over | |
| POR @ UTA | 5.5 (-104) | 0.0 | 7 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +4.3 vs. +2.0 book step adjustment (+2.3 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · @ MEM | 3.5 | — | 5 | +1.5 |
| Oct 23 · vs NOP | 3.5 | 0.0 | 7 | +3.5 |
| Oct 25 · vs LAL | 3.5 | 0.0 | 12 | +8.5 |
| Oct 26 · vs MEM | 4.5 | +1.0 | 10 | +5.5 |
| Oct 28 · vs SAS | 5.5 | +1.0 | 6 | +0.5 |
| Oct 31 · vs POR | 5.5 | 0.0 | 7 | +1.5 |
Bailey's established rebounding production and Utah's depleted frontcourt give him a strong route to six boards.
8.0 REB · 5 GAMES — Bailey averaged 8.5 rebounds through four games and added six against San Antonio, giving him an 8.0 average through five. He does not need a new level of rebounding production to reach the cashing threshold.
2 FRONTCOURT ABSENCES · 32 PROJECTED MIN — Jackson and Nurkic are Out, leaving fewer established frontcourt options to finish possessions. Bailey remains part of the perimeter group when Markkanen returns, and a 32-minute afternoon provides substantial time to collect defensive misses.
Markkanen returning could take defensive rebounds away from Bailey and move him farther from the basket. Portland making its perimeter attempts would also remove the long rebounds that help this matchup.
Settlement Rule: CASHES ACE BAILEY OVER 5.5 REBOUNDS WITH SIX OR MORE REBOUNDS; NO PUSH IS POSSIBLE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Utah Jazz's 5 primary contributors.
| Utah Jazz Contributor | Oct 31 vs POR | Nov 2 @ SAS | Nov 4 @ NOP | Nov 6 @ DAL | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyonte George UTA · Points | 21.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 21.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Lauri Markkanen UTA · Points | 21.5 | 19.5 | 21.5 | 20.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Ace Bailey UTA · Points | 14.5 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Darryn Peterson UTA · Points | 13.5 | 12.5 | 14.5 | 13.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Jaxson Hayes UTA · Points | 8.5 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Ace Bailey prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | POR @ UTA | Rebounds | Over 5.5 (-143) · ProphetX | 5.5 | 7 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Bailey's established rebounding production and Utah's depleted frontcourt give him a strong route to six boards.
Counter-Case: Markkanen returning could take defensive rebounds away from Bailey and move him farther from the basket. Portland making its perimeter attempts would also remove the long rebounds that help this matchup.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |