By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted rebounds total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 5 active games (Oct 21 to Oct 31), Jaxson Hayes's posted rebounds line has held net flat at 5.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for POR @ UTA is 7.2 (-300).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA @ MEM | 5.5 (-112) | — | 5 | Under | |
| NOP @ UTA | 5.5 (-130) | 0.0 | 5 | Under | |
| LAL @ UTA | 5.5 (-113) | 0.0 | 5 | Under | |
| SAS @ UTA(Missed 1g) | 5.5 (+102) | 0.0 | 11 | Over | |
| POR @ UTA | 5.5 (-113) | 0.0 | 7 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.1 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.1 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · @ MEM | 5.5 | — | 5 | -0.5 |
| Oct 23 · vs NOP | 5.5 | 0.0 | 5 | -0.5 |
| Oct 25 · vs LAL | 5.5 | 0.0 | 5 | -0.5 |
| Oct 28 · vs SAS | 5.5 | 0.0 | 11 | +5.5 |
| Oct 31 · vs POR | 5.5 | 0.0 | 7 | +1.5 |
Hayes's approximate rebounding rate supports six boards without requiring another overtime-sized workload.
11 REB · 37:24 LATEST GAME — Hayes collected eleven rebounds in 37:24 against San Antonio after averaging five in 23.7 minutes across his first three appearances. The longer stint showed how additional court time can translate into boards, but the thirty-minute projection does not require the full overtime workload.
ABOUT 0.24 REB/MIN · 30 PROJECTED MIN — Those appearances combine to approximately 0.24 rebounds per minute, enough for about 7.2 over thirty minutes. Jackson and Nurkic being Out leave a direct route to center playing time, although Bamba remains part of the rotation.
Hayes can lose a substantial portion of his playing time to foul trouble or a smaller closing lineup. Bamba earning a longer stint would leave fewer possessions for Hayes to collect the sixth rebound.
Settlement Rule: CASHES JAXSON HAYES OVER 5.5 REBOUNDS WITH SIX OR MORE REBOUNDS; NO PUSH IS POSSIBLE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Utah Jazz's 5 primary contributors.
| Utah Jazz Contributor | Oct 31 vs POR | Nov 2 @ SAS | Nov 4 @ NOP | Nov 6 @ DAL | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyonte George UTA · Points | 21.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 21.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Lauri Markkanen UTA · Points | 21.5 | 19.5 | 21.5 | 20.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Ace Bailey UTA · Points | 14.5 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Darryn Peterson UTA · Points | 13.5 | 12.5 | 14.5 | 13.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Jaxson Hayes UTA · Points | 8.5 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Jaxson Hayes prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | POR @ UTA | Rebounds | Over 5.5 (-126) · ProphetX | 5.5 | 7 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Hayes's approximate rebounding rate supports six boards without requiring another overtime-sized workload.
Counter-Case: Hayes can lose a substantial portion of his playing time to foul trouble or a smaller closing lineup. Bamba earning a longer stint would leave fewer possessions for Hayes to collect the sixth rebound.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |