01 · Fundamental Driver
Smaller shot budget
6.5 FGA · 24.5 MIN · FIRST 2 GAMES — Sarr averaged 6.5 field-goal attempts in 24.5 minutes across the first two games. That volume limits his scoring runway and makes each missed attempt more important.
Posted Line Trajectory: Trending Down (-3.0 over 4 games)Settled / Live Release · Full Dossier Unlocked
Alexandre Sarr Points Prop (Washington Wizards @ Charlotte Hornets, ): Fair Line 9.2 (-321) vs 10.5 Market
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Caesars: Under 10.5 (+100)Modeled Edge: +42.6% EV · Fair Value 9.2 (-321)
- Pick & Release Line
- UNDER 10.5 (-120)
- Fanatics
- Modeled Fair Line
- 9.2
- 1.3 Pt Delta
- Modeled Fair Price
- -321
- +42.6% EV
- Posted Line Drift
- 13.5 → 10.5 (-3.0)
- Last 4 Active Games
- Matchup (CT)
- WAS @ CHA
- NBA Props Lane CLV
- 73 / 11 / 36
- Beat / Tied / Lost
Sportsbook Posted Points Line Trajectory (Last 4 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (9.2 / -321)
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 4 active games (Oct 21 to Oct 26), sportsbooks adjusted Alexandre Sarr's posted points line downward in 3 of 3 game-over-game steps from 13.5 to 10.5 (-3.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for WAS @ CHA is 9.2 (-321).
4-Game Posted Points Ledger (Alexandre Sarr)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL @ WAS | 13.5 (-115) | — | — | — | |
| TOR @ WAS | 12.5 (+105) | -1.0 | — | Under | |
| WAS @ CHI | 11.5 (-120) | -1.0 | — | — | |
| WAS @ CHA | 10.5 (-120) | -1.0 | — | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 3 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Insufficient History4-Game Window
Alexandre Sarr Points Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Insufficient 6-game box-score history to measure book step-lag.
Unpriced Book Step-Lag—Max Single-Game Book Step: -1.0
- Window Open Line
- 13.5
- Current Posted Line
- 10.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- -3.0
- Actual Window Avg
- —
- Actual Output Delta
- —
- Modeled Fair Value
- 9.2 (-321)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · vs MIL | 13.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 23 · vs TOR | 12.5 | -1.0 | — | — |
| Oct 24 · @ CHI | 11.5 | -1.0 | — | — |
| Oct 26 · @ CHA | 10.5 | -1.0 | — | — |
WagerBird Write-Up · Alexandre Sarr Points (Under 10.5)
Full Dossier UnlockedWrite-Up Thesis
Sarr's reduced shot budget leaves him needing unusually efficient finishing to reach the scoring threshold.
02 · Fundamental Driver
Current scoring hierarchy
7.7 PTS · 3 GAMES — Sarr's current scoring average is 7.7 points, while Davis is averaging 20.7. The frontcourt can generate offense without Sarr becoming a high-volume scorer.
Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Thesis Invalidation Risks
Early foul trouble elsewhere in the frontcourt could push more minutes and touches his way. Quick rolls, putbacks and free throws could produce an efficient scoring night without a large shot count.
Settlement Rule: CASHES ALEXANDRE SARR UNDER 11.5 POINTS · PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF-POINT.
WagerBird Nucleus Drift · Team Prop Signal
WAS @ CHA · Washington Wizards Points Nucleus Drift ()
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Washington Wizards's 5 primary contributors.
WAS Nucleus Drift3 of 5 Core Props Adjusted DownMarket Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
| Washington Wizards Contributor | Nov 2 @ ORL | Nov 4 vs ATL | Nov 6 @ ATL | Nov 7 @ OKC | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis WAS · Points | 22.5 | 23.5 | 22.5 | 19.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Trae Young WAS · Points | 19.5 | 19.5 | 21.5 | 19.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Kyshawn George WAS · Points | 13.5 | 14.5 | 16.5 | 17.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Tre Johnson WAS · Points | 8.5 | 8.5 | — | 10.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Alexandre Sarr WAS · Points | 10.5 | 10.5 | 13.5 | 11.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Washington Wizards (WAS)3 of 5 Core Props Adjusted Down
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Charlotte Hornets (CHA)4 of 5 Core Props Adjusted Up
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team dossiers.
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault2 Tracked Write-Ups
Alexandre Sarr Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (2 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)
2 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Alexandre Sarr prop write-ups.
Alexandre Sarr CLV Counts
2 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost
2 Settled CLV Receipts| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | WAS @ CHA | Points | Under 11.5 (-115) · Caesars | 10.5 | — | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 23 | TOR @ WAS | Points | Under 12.5 (-114) · FanDuel | 12.5 | — | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Alexandre Sarr Prop Write-Ups
Oct 26 CT · WAS @ CHA · PointsFull Write-Up →
Sarr's reduced shot budget leaves him needing unusually efficient finishing to reach the scoring threshold.
Counter-Case: Early foul trouble elsewhere in the frontcourt could push more minutes and touches his way. Quick rolls, putbacks and free throws could produce an efficient scoring night without a large shot count.
Oct 23 CT · TOR @ WAS · PointsFull Write-Up →
Sarr's smaller finishing share beside Washington's primary creators limits his scoring despite useful frontcourt minutes.
Counter-Case: Young can find Sarr for lobs and pick-and-pop attempts that require little self-creation. Early perimeter makes or Davis foul trouble could turn a supporting scoring assignment into a larger one.
NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |