By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted rebounds total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 2 active games (Oct 23 to Oct 26), sportsbooks adjusted Justin Champagnie's posted rebounds line upward in 1 of 1 game-over-game steps from 4.5 to 5.5 (+1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for WAS @ CHA is 7.3 (-165).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR @ WAS | 4.5 (-145) | — | 6 | Over | |
| WAS @ CHA(Missed 1g) | 5.5 (+102) | +1.0 | 2 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Books adjusted +1.0 vs. -0.5 actual output delta (-1.5 Book Over-Adjustment).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 · vs TOR | 4.5 | — | 6 | +1.5 |
| Oct 26 · @ CHA | 5.5 | +1.0 | 2 | -3.5 |
Champagnie's rebounding activity can clear the threshold without requiring a larger scoring role.
9.3 REB · 3 GAMES · 14 LAST GAME — Champagnie is averaging 9.3 rebounds and collected 14 in the latest completed outing. His production is arriving through rebounding opportunities rather than a need for more called offensive touches.
5.6 REB · 20.0 MIN · 69 GAMES — Last season, Champagnie averaged 5.6 rebounds in 20.0 minutes across 69 games. That baseline supports meaningful rebounding production in a reserve workload, while the 23-minute forecast gives him additional time to collect available misses.
The starting bigs can collect the defensive boards that recently reached Champagnie. A shorter bench stint or unusually accurate shooting would reduce both his time and the supply of rebound chances.
Settlement Rule: CASHES JUSTIN CHAMPAGNIE OVER 6.5 REBOUNDS · PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF-POINT.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Washington Wizards's 5 primary contributors.
| Washington Wizards Contributor | Nov 2 @ ORL | Nov 4 vs ATL | Nov 6 @ ATL | Nov 7 @ OKC | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis WAS · Points | 22.5 | 23.5 | 22.5 | 19.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Trae Young WAS · Points | 19.5 | 19.5 | 21.5 | 19.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Kyshawn George WAS · Points | 13.5 | 14.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Tre Johnson WAS · Points | 8.5 | 8.5 | — | 10.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Alexandre Sarr WAS · Points | 10.5 | 10.5 | 13.5 | 11.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Justin Champagnie prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | WAS @ CHA | Rebounds | Over 6.5 (+122) · FanDuel | 5.5 | 2 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Champagnie's rebounding activity can clear the threshold without requiring a larger scoring role.
Counter-Case: The starting bigs can collect the defensive boards that recently reached Champagnie. A shorter bench stint or unusually accurate shooting would reduce both his time and the supply of rebound chances.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |