By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 2 active games (Oct 21 to Oct 23), sportsbooks adjusted Alexandre Sarr's posted points line downward in 1 of 1 game-over-game steps from 13.5 to 12.5 (-1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for TOR @ WAS is 11.0 (-187).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL @ WAS | 13.5 (-115) | — | — | — | |
| TOR @ WAS | 12.5 (+105) | -1.0 | — | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Insufficient 6-game box-score history to measure book step-lag.
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · vs MIL | 13.5 | — | — | — |
| Oct 23 · vs TOR | 12.5 | -1.0 | — | — |
Sarr's smaller finishing share beside Washington's primary creators limits his scoring despite useful frontcourt minutes.
6 PTS · 9 FGA · 24 MIN — Sarr scored six points on nine attempts in 24 minutes in the opener. Davis took a much larger share of the finishing work, so Sarr's presence in the starting group did not translate into a primary scoring assignment.
16.3 PPG · 13.7 FGA — Sarr averaged 16.3 points on 13.7 attempts last season. Reaching that production again would require restoring a larger shot budget than he received alongside Washington's current lead options in the opener.
Young can find Sarr for lobs and pick-and-pop attempts that require little self-creation. Early perimeter makes or Davis foul trouble could turn a supporting scoring assignment into a larger one.
Settlement Rule: CASHES ALEXANDRE SARR UNDER 12.5 POINTS WITH 12 OR FEWER POINTS; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Washington Wizards's 5 primary contributors.
| Washington Wizards Contributor | Nov 2 @ ORL | Nov 4 vs ATL | Nov 6 @ ATL | Nov 7 @ OKC | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis WAS · Points | 22.5 | 23.5 | 22.5 | 19.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Trae Young WAS · Points | 19.5 | 19.5 | 21.5 | 18.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Kyshawn George WAS · Points | 13.5 | 14.5 | 16.5 | 15.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Alexandre Sarr WAS · Points | 10.5 | 10.5 | 13.5 | 11.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Bilal Coulibaly WAS · Points | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
2 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Alexandre Sarr prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | WAS @ CHA | Points | Under 11.5 (-115) · Caesars | 10.5 | — | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 23 | TOR @ WAS | Points | Under 12.5 (-114) · FanDuel | 12.5 | — | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Sarr's reduced shot budget leaves him needing unusually efficient finishing to reach the scoring threshold.
Counter-Case: Early foul trouble elsewhere in the frontcourt could push more minutes and touches his way. Quick rolls, putbacks and free throws could produce an efficient scoring night without a large shot count.
Sarr's smaller finishing share beside Washington's primary creators limits his scoring despite useful frontcourt minutes.
Counter-Case: Young can find Sarr for lobs and pick-and-pop attempts that require little self-creation. Early perimeter makes or Davis foul trouble could turn a supporting scoring assignment into a larger one.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |