By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 4 active games (Oct 21 to Oct 26), Brandon Miller's posted assists line has held net flat at 3.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for WAS @ CHA is 2.8 (-225).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHA @ BKN | 3.5 (-148) | — | 1 | Under | |
| ATL @ CHA | 3.5 (-110) | 0.0 | 0 | Under | |
| MIA @ CHA | 3.5 (+114) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| WAS @ CHA | 3.5 (+113) | 0.0 | 1 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Books adjusted 0.0 vs. -2.0 actual output delta (-2.0 Book Over-Adjustment).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · @ BKN | 3.5 | — | 1 | -2.5 |
| Oct 23 · vs ATL | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0 | -3.5 |
| Oct 24 · vs MIA | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Oct 26 · vs WAS | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -2.5 |
Miller's shot-heavy assignment and Charlotte's shared creation keep his expected assists below the threshold.
21.3 FGA · 1.7 AST · 3 GAMES — Miller has averaged 21.3 field-goal attempts and 1.7 assists through three games. His current workload is ending frequently with his own shot, which does not automatically translate into more completed assists.
4.3 · 4.0 · 3.3 APG — Schröder, Allen and James are averaging 4.3, 4.0 and 3.3 assists respectively. Those additional passing outlets allow Miller to remain a primary finisher without handling every setup possession.
Aggressive help against Miller's drives can force him to pass to open shooters. If those teammates convert the resulting kick-outs, his assist total can rise without reducing his own scoring workload.
Settlement Rule: CASHES BRANDON MILLER UNDER 3.5 ASSISTS · PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF-POINT.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Charlotte Hornets's 5 primary contributors.
| Charlotte Hornets Contributor | Oct 31 vs PHI | Nov 2 vs DET | Nov 4 @ BKN | Nov 6 vs BOS | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Miller CHA · Points | 25.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | +2.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Naz Reid CHA · Points | 17.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 16.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Grayson Allen CHA · Points | 13.5 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 14.5 | +2.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Dennis Schröder CHA · Points | 13.5 | 9.5 | 7.5 | — | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Moussa Diabate CHA · Points | 8.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 7.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Brandon Miller prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | WAS @ CHA | Assists | Under 3.5 (-145) · DraftKings | 3.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Miller's shot-heavy assignment and Charlotte's shared creation keep his expected assists below the threshold.
Counter-Case: Aggressive help against Miller's drives can force him to pass to open shooters. If those teammates convert the resulting kick-outs, his assist total can rise without reducing his own scoring workload.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |