01 · Fundamental Driver
Lead creation
11.3 AST · 3 GAMES — Young is averaging 11.3 assists through the opening three games. That production supports a playmaking-first role rather than requiring an abrupt change in how the offense operates.
Posted Line Trajectory: Trending Down (-1.0 over 4 games)Settled / Live Release · Full Dossier Unlocked
Trae Young Assists Prop (Washington Wizards @ Charlotte Hornets, ): Fair Line 11.4 (-215) vs 9.5 Market
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
DraftKings: Over 9.5 (-137)Modeled Edge: +22.5% EV · Fair Value 11.4 (-215)
- Pick & Release Line
- OVER 9.5 (-137)
- Caesars
- Modeled Fair Line
- 11.4
- 1.9 Pt Delta
- Modeled Fair Price
- -215
- +22.5% EV
- Posted Line Drift
- 10.5 → 9.5 (-1.0)
- Last 4 Active Games
- Matchup (CT)
- WAS @ CHA
- NBA Props Lane CLV
- 73 / 11 / 36
- Beat / Tied / Lost
Sportsbook Posted Assists Line Trajectory (Last 4 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (11.4 / -215)
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 4 active games (Oct 21 to Oct 26), sportsbooks adjusted Trae Young's posted assists line downward in 2 of 3 game-over-game steps from 10.5 to 9.5 (-1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for WAS @ CHA is 11.4 (-215).
4-Game Posted Assists Ledger (Trae Young)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL @ WAS | 10.5 (+102) | — | 13 | Over | |
| TOR @ WAS | 9.5 (+100) | -1.0 | 12 | Over | |
| WAS @ CHI | 11.5 (+112) | +2.0 | 9 | Under | |
| WAS @ CHA | 9.5 (-137) | -2.0 | 10 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Lagging Production4-Game Window
Trae Young Assists Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Actual output +0.5 vs. -1.0 book step adjustment (+1.5 Unpriced Book Lag).
Unpriced Book Step-Lag+1.5Max Single-Game Book Step: -2.0
- Window Open Line
- 10.5
- Current Posted Line
- 9.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- -1.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 11.0
- Actual Output Delta
- +0.5
- Modeled Fair Value
- 11.4 (-215)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · vs MIL | 10.5 | — | 13 | +2.5 |
| Oct 23 · vs TOR | 9.5 | -1.0 | 12 | +2.5 |
| Oct 24 · @ CHI | 11.5 | +2.0 | 9 | -2.5 |
| Oct 26 · @ CHA | 9.5 | -2.0 | 10 | +0.5 |
WagerBird Write-Up · Trae Young Assists (Over 9.5)
Full Dossier UnlockedWrite-Up Thesis
Young's sustained creation workload gives him enough passing opportunities to reach double-digit assists.
02 · Fundamental Driver
Minutes runway
37.5 MIN · FIRST 2 GAMES — Young averaged 37.5 minutes in the first two games. A similar workload gives him repeated opportunities to create assists across multiple lineup combinations.
Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Thesis Invalidation Risks
Missed perimeter shots and unsuccessful interior finishes can erase productive passing possessions. A scoring-heavy approach or a shortened closing stint could also leave Young without enough completed assists.
Settlement Rule: CASHES TRAE YOUNG OVER 9.5 ASSISTS · PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF-POINT.
WagerBird Nucleus Drift · Team Prop Signal
WAS @ CHA · Washington Wizards Points Nucleus Drift ()
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Washington Wizards's 5 primary contributors.
WAS Nucleus Drift3 of 5 Core Props Adjusted DownMarket Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
| Washington Wizards Contributor | Nov 2 @ ORL | Nov 4 vs ATL | Nov 6 @ ATL | Nov 7 @ OKC | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis WAS · Points | 22.5 | 23.5 | 22.5 | 19.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Trae Young WAS · Points | 19.5 | 19.5 | 21.5 | 19.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Kyshawn George WAS · Points | 13.5 | 14.5 | 16.5 | 17.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Tre Johnson WAS · Points | 8.5 | 8.5 | — | 10.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Alexandre Sarr WAS · Points | 10.5 | 10.5 | 13.5 | 11.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Washington Wizards (WAS)3 of 5 Core Props Adjusted Down
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Charlotte Hornets (CHA)4 of 5 Core Props Adjusted Up
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team dossiers.
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up
Trae Young Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (1 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Trae Young prop write-up.
Trae Young CLV Counts
1 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost
1 Settled CLV Receipt| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | WAS @ CHA | Assists | Over 9.5 (-126) · Kalshi | 9.5 | 10 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Trae Young Prop Write-Ups
Oct 26 CT · WAS @ CHA · AssistsFull Write-Up →
Young's sustained creation workload gives him enough passing opportunities to reach double-digit assists.
Counter-Case: Missed perimeter shots and unsuccessful interior finishes can erase productive passing possessions. A scoring-heavy approach or a shortened closing stint could also leave Young without enough completed assists.
NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |