NBA · Home Team TotalMarket MovementKickoff Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM CTMarket UpdateES-MX: Momios Sin Vig

Why is the ORL @ GSW Home Team Total moving?

Name: Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors Golden State Warriors team total: Vig-Free Consensus, Modeled Fair Value & Closing-Line Value Telemetry
Creator: WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk
Published: 2026-11-07T16:02:55.116Z

Prices as of Sat, Nov 7, 3:24 PM CT.

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released Sat, Nov 7, 10:02 AM CT · Last updated (CT) Sat, Nov 7, 2:00 PM CT

WagerBird Signal Status: - No Pick (Market Movement)
Current Consensus across 16 books: 113.5 (13 consensus books · 16 tracked)
Market Move: 113.5 to 113.5 (flat since open)
Lane CLV record: NBA team totals: 11 Beat / 1 Tied / 3 Lost (15 measured)

Why is the ORL @ GSW Home Team Total moving?

Sat, Nov 7, 9:59 AM CTMarket line moved 1.0 pt toward Over across 5 tracked sportsbooks.

Over

Vig-free consensus 113.5 -102 (50.4% across 13 books)

Best price: 113.5 -110 at DraftKings

Under

Vig-free consensus 113.5 +102 (49.6% across 13 books)

Best price: 113.5 -104 at FanDuel

ORL @ GSW Home Team Total Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks

Sportsbook	Over	Under	Updated (CT)	Execution
BetMGM	113.5-115	113.5-110	Sat, Nov 7, 3:23 PM CT	BetMGM
Caesars	113.5-115	113.5-115	Sat, Nov 7, 3:23 PM CT	Caesars
DraftKings	113.5-110	113.5-110	Sat, Nov 7, 3:23 PM CT	DraftKings
FanDuel	113.5-118	113.5-104	Sat, Nov 7, 3:22 PM CT	FanDuel
Fanatics	113.5-115	113.5-115	Sat, Nov 7, 3:06 PM CT	Fanatics

Full market: 16 sportsbooks, consensus 113.5. Links shown for licensed books we work with.

Trade on Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

Market Movement Analysis: ORL @ GSW Home Team Total

The Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors Golden State Warriors team total opened at 113.5 on WagerBird's per-book price tape (first recorded Fri, Nov 6, 11:00 PM CT) and currently sits at 113.5 across 16 tracked sportsbooks, representing an unchanged median since the opening quote. Scheduled kickoff is Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM CT, and all live sportsbook quotes on this page are timestamped as of Sat, Nov 7, 3:24 PM CT.

At Sat, Nov 7, 9:59 AM CT, 5 quoting sportsbooks adjusted this market in the same direction toward Over by a median of 1.0 pt. Broad repricing across multiple independent operators reflects consolidated market order flow and updated consensus pricing on the Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors Golden State Warriors team total.

Across the 16 sportsbooks currently quoting the Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors Golden State Warriors team total, the top-to-bottom market spread is 2.5 pts, creating measurable price dispersion for bettors comparing lines across licensed operators.

Stripping out sportsbook overround (vig), the 13-book consensus prices Over at 113.5 -102 (50.4% vig-free probability) and Under at 113.5 +102 (49.5% vig-free probability).

Best execution prices among licensed partner sportsbooks right now: Over 113.5 -110 at DraftKings; Under 113.5 -104 at FanDuel.

In the NBA team totals betting lane, WagerBird's released plays have beaten the release book's closing line 11 times, tied 1, and lost 3 season to date (15 graded releases through 2026-11-06). Every historical settled release can be verified in the downloadable CSV audit log below.

NBA Team Totals Closing-Line Value Record (11 Beat, 1 Tied, 3 Lost)

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)

Window	Beat	Tied	Lost	Measured	Beat %
Season to date	11	1	3	15	78.6%
Last 30 days	11	1	3	15	78.6%

WagerBird measures closing-line value (CLV) by comparing each pick's release line and price against the pre-kickoff closing number at the exact sportsbook where the pick was released (settled picks through 2026-11-06).

Preview Live Widget

Embed live vig-free odds, implied probability split, and fair value telemetry for Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors (Home Team Total) attributed to WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475):

<iframe src="https://wagerbird.com/markets/embed/nba/orlando-magic-at-golden-state-warriors-home-team-total-2026-11-07-34195" title="Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors Home Team Total Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability | WagerBird" width="100%" height="340" style="border:0;border-radius:6px;overflow:hidden;" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:12px;margin-top:4px;">Source: <a href="https://wagerbird.com/markets/nba/orlando-magic-at-golden-state-warriors-home-team-total-2026-11-07-34195">ORL @ GSW Home Team Total Vig-Free Odds &amp; Implied Probability</a> by WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475).</p>

WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift · Team Tide ShiftORL @ GSW · Points

ORL @ GSW · Orlando Magic WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Nov 7, 7:30 PM CT)

Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Orlando Magic's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.

ORL Rotation Mode: Team Tide ShiftTeam Tide Shift: 5 of 6 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted UpTeam Tide Shift (Bullish): Market Expanding Core-6 Scoring Ceiling

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

+2.2 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 108.7 vs. 106.5 Posted Team Total)

6 Licensed Books Quoting Team Total

Core-6 Sum	Core-6 Share	Implied Total	Posted Total	Reconciliation Gap
100.0	92.0%	108.7	106.5 (-104)	+2.2

Compare ORL Team Total Partner Quotes:

FanDuel 106.5 (O -118)DraftKings 106.5 (O -104)BetMGM 106.5 (O -110)Caesars 106.5 (O -110)Kalshi (Code WBIRD1)

Core-6 Player	Tonight Line	Team Scoring Share %	Tonight's Implied Prop Share %	6-Game Line Drift	6G Trend	Outcome Tag
#1 Franz Wagner ORL · Prev 23.5 (+1.0)	24.5	20.0%	23.0%(+3.0% vs Hist)	+1.0		Team Tide Shift
#2 Desmond Bane ORL · Prev 20.5 (-1.0)

Orlando Magic (ORL)Team Tide Shift

+2.2 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 108.7 vs. 106.5 Posted Team Total)

Golden State Warriors (GSW)Team Tide Shift

-30.1 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 83.4 vs. 113.5 Posted Team Total)

Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team pages.

Orlando Magic team page →

WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift · Team Tide ShiftORL @ GSW · Points

ORL @ GSW · Golden State Warriors WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–5) (Nov 7, 7:30 PM CT)

Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Golden State Warriors's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.

GSW Rotation Mode: Team Tide ShiftTeam Tide Shift: 3 of 5 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted DownTeam Tide Shift (Bearish): Market Compressing Core-6 Scoring Ceiling

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

-30.1 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 83.4 vs. 113.5 Posted Team Total)

7 Licensed Books Quoting Team Total

NBA Player Props · Verified CLV: 73 Beat / 11 Tied / 36 LostThrough Nov 6 CT

Released Player Props & CLV Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)

All NBA Player Props →Audit CSV

ORL @ GSW · ORL · AssistsFree Dossier Release

Franz Wagner · Assists

Pick & Line: Over 7.5
Fair Value: 8.1 (-249)
Book: Fanatics (+118)

Wagner's central creation role and Carter's finishing give him a credible path beyond six assists.

Prop Dossier →Player History

Fanatics: Over 7.5 (+110)Kalshi · WBIRD1

ORL @ GSW · GSW · AssistsFree Dossier Release

Brandin Podziemski · Assists

Pick & Line: Over 3.5
Fair Value: 4.7 (-223)
Book: DraftKings (-148)

Podziemski's starter-sized workload and established passing production support four assists.

Prop Dossier →Player History

DraftKings: Over 3.5 (-160)Kalshi · WBIRD1

ORL @ GSW · GSW · PointsFree Dossier Release

Yaxel Lendeborg · Points

Pick & Line: Over 18.5
Fair Value: 20.3 (-188)
Book: ProphetX (+100)

Lendeborg's shot volume and free-throw opportunities support scoring beyond the posted threshold.

Prop Dossier →Player History

ProphetX: Over 17.5 (-128)Kalshi · WBIRD1

Core-6 Player	Tonight Line	Team Scoring Share %	Tonight's Implied Prop Share %	6-Game Line Drift	Outcome Tag
#1 Stephen Curry GSW · Prev 28.5 (-2.0)	26.5	32.6%	23.3%(-9.3% vs Hist)	+2.0	Team Tide Shift
#2 Yaxel Lendeborg GSW · Prev 18.5 (0.0)	18.5	23.3%	16.3%(-7.0% vs Hist)	+2.0	Steady Share
#3 Brandin Podziemski GSW · Prev 16.5 (-1.0)	15.5	16.3%	13.7%(-2.6% vs Hist)	0.0	Team Tide Shift
#4 De'Anthony Melton GSW · Prev 10.5 (-2.0)	8.5	9.7%	7.5%(-2.2% vs Hist)	-2.0	Team Tide Shift
#5 Georges Niang GSW · Prev 7.5 (0.0)	7.5	9.8%	6.6%(-3.2% vs Hist)	+1.0	Steady Share

Why is the ORL @ GSW Home Team Total moving?

Vig-free consensus and best partner price

ORL @ GSW Home Team Total Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks

Market Movement Analysis: ORL @ GSW Home Team Total

NBA Team Totals Closing-Line Value Record (11 Beat, 1 Tied, 3 Lost)

Cite or Embed This Vig-Free Market Split (Media & Beat Writers)

ORL @ GSW · Orlando Magic WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Nov 7, 7:30 PM CT)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

ORL @ GSW · Golden State Warriors WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–5) (Nov 7, 7:30 PM CT)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

Released Player Props & CLV Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)

Franz Wagner · Assists

Brandin Podziemski · Assists

Yaxel Lendeborg · Points

ORL @ GSW · Orlando Magic WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Nov 7, 7:30 PM CT)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

ORL @ GSW · Golden State Warriors WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–5) (Nov 7, 7:30 PM CT)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

Released Player Props & CLV Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)

Franz Wagner · Assists

Brandin Podziemski · Assists

Yaxel Lendeborg · Points