Franz Wagner · Assists
- Pick & Line
- Over 7.5
- Fair Value
- 8.1 (-249)
- Book
- Fanatics (+118)
Wagner's central creation role and Carter's finishing give him a credible path beyond six assists.
Prices as of .
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
| Sportsbook | Over | Under | Updated (CT) | Execution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 56.5-120 | 56.5+100 | BetMGM | |
| Caesars | 56.5-120 | 56.5-110 | Caesars | |
| DraftKings | 56.5-115 | 56.5-105 | DraftKings | |
| FanDuel | 57.5-111 | 57.5-115 | FanDuel | |
| Fanatics | 56.5-120 | 56.5-110 | Fanatics |
Full market: 20 sportsbooks, consensus 56.5. Links shown for licensed books we work with.
The Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors first-quarter total opened at 57.5 on WagerBird's per-book price tape (first recorded Fri, Nov 6, 11:58 PM CT) and currently sits at 56.5 across 20 tracked sportsbooks, representing a net move of 1.0 pt, with net market movement toward Under. Scheduled kickoff is Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM CT, and all live sportsbook quotes on this page are timestamped as of Sat, Nov 7, 3:27 PM CT.
At Sat, Nov 7, 1:22 PM CT, 5 quoting sportsbooks adjusted this market in the same direction toward Under by a median of 1.0 pt. Broad repricing across multiple independent operators reflects consolidated market order flow and updated consensus pricing on the Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors first-quarter total.
As of Sat, Nov 7, 2:01 PM CT, vig-free implied probability has shifted +5.0% toward Under across 20 tracked sportsbooks, accompanied by a 1.0 pt median line adjustment. Sustained directional repricing across the consensus board highlights ongoing market adjustment ahead of kickoff.
Across the 20 sportsbooks currently quoting the Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors first-quarter total, the top-to-bottom market spread is 1.0 pt, creating measurable price dispersion for bettors comparing lines across licensed operators.
Stripping out sportsbook overround (vig), the 14-book consensus prices Over at 56.5 -105 (51.2% vig-free probability) and Under at 56.5 +105 (48.8% vig-free probability).
Best execution prices among licensed partner sportsbooks right now: Over 56.5 -115 at DraftKings; Under 57.5 -115 at FanDuel.
WagerBird tracks closing-line value (Beat / Tied / Lost against the release sportsbook's closing number) across every NBA first-quarter game totals release; the full historical audit CSV is available for download below.
| Window | Beat | Tied | Lost | Measured | Beat % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Last 30 days | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
WagerBird measures closing-line value (CLV) by comparing each pick's release line and price against the pre-kickoff closing number at the exact sportsbook where the pick was released (settled picks through 2026-11-06).
Embed live vig-free odds, implied probability split, and fair value telemetry for Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors (1st Quarter Total) attributed to WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475):
<iframe src="https://wagerbird.com/markets/embed/nba/orlando-magic-at-golden-state-warriors-1q-total-2026-11-07-34195" title="Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors 1st Quarter Total Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability | WagerBird" width="100%" height="340" style="border:0;border-radius:6px;overflow:hidden;" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px;margin-top:4px;">Source: <a href="https://wagerbird.com/markets/nba/orlando-magic-at-golden-state-warriors-1q-total-2026-11-07-34195">ORL @ GSW 1st Quarter Total Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability</a> by WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475).</p>
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Orlando Magic's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
+2.2 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 108.7 vs. 106.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100.0 | 92.0% | 108.7 | 106.5 (-104) | +2.2 |
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Franz Wagner ORL · Prev 23.5 (+1.0) | 24.5 | 20.0% | 23.0%(+3.0% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#2 Desmond Bane ORL · Prev 20.5 (-1.0) |
+2.2 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 108.7 vs. 106.5 Posted Team Total)
-30.1 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 83.4 vs. 113.5 Posted Team Total)
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Golden State Warriors's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
-30.1 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 83.4 vs. 113.5 Posted Team Total)
| 19.5 |
| 20.0% |
| 18.3%(-1.7% vs Hist) |
| 0.0 |
| Usage Transfer |
#3 Anthony Black ORL · Prev 15.5 (+2.0) | 17.5 | 15.6% | 16.4%(+0.8% vs Hist) | +3.0 | Team Tide Shift |
#4 Tristan da Silva ORL · Prev 12.5 (+2.0) | 14.5 | 16.7% | 13.6%(-3.1% vs Hist) | +3.0 | Team Tide Shift |
#5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL · Prev 11.5 (+2.0) | 13.5 | 12.3% | 12.7%(+0.4% vs Hist) | +2.0 | Team Tide Shift |
#6 Jase Richardson ORL · Prev 7.5 (+3.0) | 10.5 | 7.4% | 9.9%(+2.5% vs Hist) | +3.0 | Team Tide Shift |
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76.5 | 91.7% | 83.4 | 113.5 (-110) | -30.1 |
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Stephen Curry GSW · Prev 28.5 (-2.0) | 26.5 | 32.6% | 23.3%(-9.3% vs Hist) | +2.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#2 Yaxel Lendeborg GSW · Prev 18.5 (0.0) | 18.5 | 23.3% | 16.3%(-7.0% vs Hist) | +2.0 | Steady Share | |
#3 Brandin Podziemski GSW · Prev 16.5 (-1.0) | 15.5 | 16.3% | 13.7%(-2.6% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#4 De'Anthony Melton GSW · Prev 10.5 (-2.0) | 8.5 | 9.7% | 7.5%(-2.2% vs Hist) | -2.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#5 Georges Niang GSW · Prev 7.5 (0.0) | 7.5 | 9.8% | 6.6%(-3.2% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Steady Share |
Wagner's central creation role and Carter's finishing give him a credible path beyond six assists.
Podziemski's starter-sized workload and established passing production support four assists.
Lendeborg's shot volume and free-throw opportunities support scoring beyond the posted threshold.