NBA · Home Team TotalMarket MovementKickoff Sat, Nov 7, 4:00 PM CTMarket Move: Under 110.8 → 110.5 (-0.3 pts)ES-MX: Momios Sin Vig

Why is the DEN @ IND Home Team Total moving?

Name: Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers Indiana Pacers team total: Vig-Free Consensus, Modeled Fair Value & Closing-Line Value Telemetry
Creator: WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk
Published: 2026-11-07T16:02:55.116Z

Prices as of Sat, Nov 7, 3:24 PM CT.

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released Sat, Nov 7, 10:02 AM CT · Last updated (CT) Sat, Nov 7, 2:40 PM CT

WagerBird Signal Status: - No Pick (Market Movement)
Current Consensus across 16 books: 110.5 (12 consensus books · 16 tracked)
Market Move: 110.8 to 110.5 (0.3 pts toward Under)
Lane CLV record: NBA team totals: 11 Beat / 1 Tied / 3 Lost (15 measured)

Why is the DEN @ IND Home Team Total moving?

Sat, Nov 7, 9:50 AM CTMarket line moved 1.0 pt toward Under across 6 tracked sportsbooks.

Over

Vig-free consensus 110.5 +102 (49.6% across 12 books)

Best price: 107.5 -180 at Fanatics

Under

Vig-free consensus 110.5 -102 (50.4% across 12 books)

Best price: 110.5 -110 at FanDuel

DEN @ IND Home Team Total Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks

Sportsbook	Over	Under	Updated (CT)	Execution
BetMGM	110.5-110	110.5-115	Sat, Nov 7, 3:24 PM CT	BetMGM
Caesars	110.5-115	110.5-115	Sat, Nov 7, 3:20 PM CT	Caesars
DraftKings	110.5-108	110.5-112	Sat, Nov 7, 3:23 PM CT	DraftKings
FanDuel	110.5-110	110.5-110	Sat, Nov 7, 3:22 PM CT	FanDuel
Fanatics	107.5-180	107.5+135	Sat, Nov 7, 3:22 PM CT	Fanatics

Full market: 16 sportsbooks, consensus 110.5. Links shown for licensed books we work with.

Trade on Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

Market Movement Analysis: DEN @ IND Home Team Total

The Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers Indiana Pacers team total opened at 110.8 on WagerBird's per-book price tape (first recorded Fri, Nov 6, 11:00 PM CT) and currently sits at 110.5 across 16 tracked sportsbooks, representing a net move of 0.3 pts, with net market movement toward Under. Scheduled kickoff is Sat, Nov 7, 4:00 PM CT, and all live sportsbook quotes on this page are timestamped as of Sat, Nov 7, 3:24 PM CT.

At Sat, Nov 7, 9:50 AM CT, 6 quoting sportsbooks adjusted this market in the same direction toward Under by a median of 1.0 pt. Broad repricing across multiple independent operators reflects consolidated market order flow and updated consensus pricing on the Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers Indiana Pacers team total.

Across the 16 sportsbooks currently quoting the Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers Indiana Pacers team total, the top-to-bottom market spread is 5.0 pts, creating measurable price dispersion for bettors comparing lines across licensed operators.

Stripping out sportsbook overround (vig), the 12-book consensus prices Over at 110.5 +102 (49.6% vig-free probability) and Under at 110.5 -102 (50.4% vig-free probability).

Best execution prices among licensed partner sportsbooks right now: Over 107.5 -180 at Fanatics; Under 110.5 -110 at FanDuel.

In the NBA team totals betting lane, WagerBird's released plays have beaten the release book's closing line 11 times, tied 1, and lost 3 season to date (15 graded releases through 2026-11-06). Every historical settled release can be verified in the downloadable CSV audit log below.

NBA Team Totals Closing-Line Value Record (11 Beat, 1 Tied, 3 Lost)

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)

Window	Beat	Tied	Lost	Measured	Beat %
Season to date	11	1	3	15	78.6%
Last 30 days	11	1	3	15	78.6%

WagerBird measures closing-line value (CLV) by comparing each pick's release line and price against the pre-kickoff closing number at the exact sportsbook where the pick was released (settled picks through 2026-11-06).

Preview Live Widget

Embed live vig-free odds, implied probability split, and fair value telemetry for Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers (Home Team Total) attributed to WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475):

<iframe src="https://wagerbird.com/markets/embed/nba/denver-nuggets-at-indiana-pacers-home-team-total-2026-11-07-34191" title="Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers Home Team Total Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability | WagerBird" width="100%" height="340" style="border:0;border-radius:6px;overflow:hidden;" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:12px;margin-top:4px;">Source: <a href="https://wagerbird.com/markets/nba/denver-nuggets-at-indiana-pacers-home-team-total-2026-11-07-34191">DEN @ IND Home Team Total Vig-Free Odds &amp; Implied Probability</a> by WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475).</p>

WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift · Balanced AllocationDEN @ IND · Points

DEN @ IND · Denver Nuggets WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Nov 7, 4:00 PM CT)

Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Denver Nuggets's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.

DEN Rotation Mode: Balanced Allocation1 of 6 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted UpBalanced Core-6 Scoring Allocation: Implied Team Total Pressure Neutral

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

-12.1 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 106.4 vs. 118.5 Posted Team Total)

7 Licensed Books Quoting Team Total

Core-6 Sum	Core-6 Share	Implied Total	Posted Total	Reconciliation Gap
98.0	92.1%	106.4	118.5 (-108)	-12.1

Compare DEN Team Total Partner Quotes:

FanDuel 118.5 (O -112)DraftKings 118.5 (O -118)BetMGM 118.5 (O -115)Caesars 118.5 (O -120)Kalshi (Code WBIRD1)

Core-6 Player	Tonight Line	Team Scoring Share %	Tonight's Implied Prop Share %	6-Game Line Drift	6G Trend	Outcome Tag
#1 Nikola Jokić DEN · Prev 24.5 (+1.0)	25.5	23.1%	21.5%(-1.6% vs Hist)	-1.0		Usage Transfer
#2 Jamal Murray DEN · Prev 23.5 (0.0)

Denver Nuggets (DEN)Balanced Allocation

-12.1 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 106.4 vs. 118.5 Posted Team Total)

Indiana Pacers (IND)Team Tide Shift

-20.3 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 90.2 vs. 110.5 Posted Team Total)

Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team pages.

Denver Nuggets team page →

WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift · Team Tide ShiftDEN @ IND · Points

DEN @ IND · Indiana Pacers WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Nov 7, 4:00 PM CT)

Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Indiana Pacers's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.

IND Rotation Mode: Team Tide ShiftTeam Tide Shift: 5 of 6 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted DownTeam Tide Shift (Bearish): Market Compressing Core-6 Scoring Ceiling

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

-20.3 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 90.2 vs. 110.5 Posted Team Total)

7 Licensed Books Quoting Team Total

Core-6 Player	Tonight Line	Team Scoring Share %	Tonight's Implied Prop Share %	6-Game Line Drift	Outcome Tag
#1 Pascal Siakam IND · Prev 22.5 (-2.0)	20.5	22.0%	18.6%(-3.4% vs Hist)	-4.0	Team Tide Shift
#2 Andrew Nembhard IND · Prev 17.5 (-1.0)	16.5	21.6%	14.9%(-6.7% vs Hist)	+3.0	Team Tide Shift
#3 Ivica Zubac IND · Prev 11.5 (-2.0)	9.5	4.5%	8.6%(+4.1% vs Hist)	-6.0	Team Tide Shift
#4 Aaron Nesmith IND · Prev 12.5 (+1.0)	13.5	15.0%	12.2%(-2.8% vs Hist)	+2.0	Usage Transfer
#5 Obi Toppin IND · Prev 13.5 (-2.0)	11.5	15.1%	10.4%(-4.7% vs Hist)	0.0	Team Tide Shift
#6 Kelly Oubre Jr. IND · Prev 11.5 (-2.0)	9.5	11.6%	8.6%(-3.0% vs Hist)	+1.0	Team Tide Shift

Why is the DEN @ IND Home Team Total moving?

Vig-free consensus and best partner price

DEN @ IND Home Team Total Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks

Market Movement Analysis: DEN @ IND Home Team Total

NBA Team Totals Closing-Line Value Record (11 Beat, 1 Tied, 3 Lost)

Cite or Embed This Vig-Free Market Split (Media & Beat Writers)

DEN @ IND · Denver Nuggets WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Nov 7, 4:00 PM CT)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

DEN @ IND · Indiana Pacers WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Nov 7, 4:00 PM CT)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

DEN @ IND · Denver Nuggets WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Nov 7, 4:00 PM CT)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

DEN @ IND · Indiana Pacers WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Nov 7, 4:00 PM CT)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)