Aaron Nesmith (NBA) Posted Points Line Trajectory & CLV Record
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Sportsbook Posted Points Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 26 to Nov 7), sportsbooks adjusted Aaron Nesmith's posted points line upward in 1 of 5 game-over-game steps from 11.5 to 12.5 (+1.0).
6-Game Posted Points Ledger (Aaron Nesmith)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND @ MIL | 11.5 (-110) | — | 13 | Over | |
| PHI @ IND | 11.5 (+100) | 0.0 | 18 | Over | |
| IND @ MIA | 13.5 (-120) | +2.0 | 9 | Under | |
| BKN @ IND | 12.5 (-110) | -1.0 | 11 | Under | |
| IND @ MEM(Missed 1g) | 12.5 (-115) | 0.0 | 16 | Over | |
| DEN @ IND | 12.5 (-112) | 0.0 | — | Upcoming |
Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Aaron Nesmith Points Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Book step adjustment (+1.0) tracks actual window production (+1.9).
- Window Open Line
- 11.5
- Current Posted Line
- 12.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- +1.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 13.4
- Actual Output Delta
- +1.9
- Modeled Fair Value
- —
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 · @ MIL | 11.5 | — | 13 | +1.5 |
| Oct 28 · vs PHI | 11.5 | 0.0 | 18 | +6.5 |
| Oct 30 · @ MIA | 13.5 | +2.0 | 9 | -4.5 |
| Nov 1 · vs BKN | 12.5 | -1.0 | 11 | -1.5 |
| Nov 4 · @ MEM | 12.5 | 0.0 | 16 | +3.5 |
| Nov 7 · vs DEN | 12.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
Aaron Nesmith Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)
No archived prop write-ups recorded yet for Aaron Nesmith.
No archived prop write-up receipts recorded yet for Aaron Nesmith.
NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |