// GLOSSARY
Cover
A favorite covers the spread when it wins by more points than the spread requires. An underdog covers when it either wins outright or loses by fewer points than the spread allows. Covering is entirely about the margin relative to the posted number, not about who wins the game.
Example: a favorite is -6.5. If that team wins by 7 or more, it covers. If it wins by 6 or fewer (or loses outright), it does not cover, and the underdog side wins the bet. The underdog at +6.5 covers by losing by 6 or fewer, or by winning outright.
A whole-number spread introduces a third outcome: the push, where the result lands exactly on the number and the bet is refunded rather than won or lost. Half-point spreads (like -6.5 above) exist specifically to eliminate that outcome, which is why sportsbooks often charge slightly more juice to buy off a whole number and remove push risk.
Covering is a bet-settlement concept, not a prediction of the final score. Modeling the probability a team covers a specific number is a different problem from modeling who wins outright, and it is the actual problem a spread bettor is solving.
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