Arizona +1.5
Seattle starts a young arm carrying a 1.64 ERA, but that number comes from just two starts, and the public is laying the Mariners on the run line. Arizona averages close to five runs a game over twenty, one quiet night is not a slump, and veteran Merrill Kelly gives Arizona six innings to keep it close. The model says Arizona stays inside the run and a half far more often than minus one sixty eight implies, and grades it a STRONG read at eighty three, with the GEMs reserved for the Terminal.

