MLB · TOR @ BAL12:15 PM ET
Baltimore -1.5
+175WB3 · 78
Baltimore is the home favorite and the public is paying up on the moneyline, but the run line pays plus one seventy five to win by two. The Orioles are averaging almost six runs a game at home, Toronto counters with a pitcher making his first big league start, and Baltimore answers with the only proven arm in the game in Kyle Bradish. The model says that profile covers the run and a half often enough that plus one seventy five is value, and grades it a CORE read at seventy eight, with the GEMs reserved for the Terminal.
MLB · AZ @ SEA4:10 PM ET
Arizona +1.5
-168WB3 · 83
Seattle starts a young arm carrying a 1.64 ERA, but that number comes from just two starts, and the public is laying the Mariners on the run line. Arizona averages close to five runs a game over twenty, one quiet night is not a slump, and veteran Merrill Kelly gives Arizona six innings to keep it close. The model says Arizona stays inside the run and a half far more often than minus one sixty eight implies, and grades it a STRONG read at eighty three, with the GEMs reserved for the Terminal.